Documents sur les Etats-Unis

  MONETARY POLICY - FINANCE

Is It a Yen or a Dollar Crisis in the Currency Market?

Hale, David The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 1995, pp 145-171

"Why is the yen so strong? How are its appreciation and the dollar's weakness changing the roles of the two currencies in the global financial system, and with what effect for capital flows? What will be the consequences for the United States if the dollar's reserve currency role erodes significantly? And finally, what policy can the United States pursue to maintain the dollar's status as the world's leading reserve currency? This article sets out to answer these questions."

  Surrendering to Markets.

Peterson, Erik R.(CSIS) The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 1995, pp 103-115

"This essay addresses the increasing power of the global markets and the implications of that power for nation-states and the international structures they have designed to deal with international financial stability. It is based on the premise that some governments have already been forced to surrender important economic-policy-making prerogatives to the markets and the others will soon forfeit theirs as well . . . The essay concludes with some ideas about the implications of this phenomenon for the United States in particular."

 How Farsighted Is the FOMC?

Tootell, Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, Geoffrey M.B. New England Economic Review, pp 49-65

"The most difficult problem facing monetary policymakers results from the long and variable lags in monetary policy s impact on the economy... This article examines the extent to which the Federal Open Market Committee reacts to forward-looking data." Hard Times, Easy Money? Countercyclical Stabilization in an Uncertain Economy Levy Economics Institute, note, December 2001 http://www.levy.org/docs/pn/01-9.html What Remains of Monetarism? Fed Reserve Atlanta, article, December 2001, 21p. http://www.frbatlanta.org/frbatlanta/filelegacydocs/hafer.pdf   Anna Schartz  (NBER) Assessing the Euro Three Years After Its Launch Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, The Region, December 2001 http://minneapolisfed.org/pubs/region/01-12/schwartz.html The Federal Reserve and Electronic Payments Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, The Region, December 2001 http://minneapolisfed.org/pubs/region/01-12/top9.html Flow of Funds Review & Analysis: Q3 2001 Financial Markets Center, 5p http://www.fmcenter.org/pdf/flowdec01.pdf Taking Stock: CDFIs Look Ahead After 25 Years of Community Development Finance Brookings Institution, December 2001, 31p http://www.brookings.edu/es/urban/capitalxchange/article9.htm Chinese Fundraising Activities in U.S. Capital Markets Hearing, December 6, 2001. http://www.uscc.gov/hr12_6.htm 

EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION     see  UStransat.

Is the European Common Currency Worth It?

Dean, James (Simon Fraser University) Dean, James (Simon Fraser University) Challenge, May-June 1997, pp 57-74"Is the Economic Monetary Union here at last? Brussels Eurocrats have propagated ten "Euromyths" about the potential benefits of a common currency for Europe. The author says that none of these survives close scrutiny." The Dollar and the Euro Bergsten, Fred C. Bergsten, Fred C. Foreign Affairs, July/August 1997, pp 83-95"The creation of a single European currency will be the most important development in the international monetary system since the adoption of flexible exchange rates in the early 1970s. The dollar will have its first real competitor since it surpassed the pound sterling as the world's dominant currency during the interwar period....The underlying strength and history of the North Atlantic relationship bode well, but achieving a successful outcome will be a major policy challenge in the years ahead."

  FINANCE   MARKETS  See USforeigneconomy

 International Capital Movements: How Shocking Are They?

Fieleke, Norman S. New England Economic Review, March/April 1996, pp. 41-59

"International linkages of national capital markets have strengthened in recent years, as many nations have relaxed restrictions over their financial markets and as technical advances have speeded communications. While some controls over capital movements remain, the degree of integration is impressive -- and has been for years, well before it became fashionable to speak of `globalization'." This article examines the volatility of capital movements relative to national outputs for 11 industrial countries."

 Risk and Volatility.

Smith, Roy C. (New York University) The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 1995, pp 117-131

"Technology, deregulation, and increased competition in financial services have led us to a world in which markets forces are more powerful than national or international regulatory systems currently in place. The market offers many advantages in efficient capital allocation but are the risks associated with these advantages worth the possible collapse of the whole system? To answer this question, we need to understand volatility better and the ways in which financial regulators and the market itself have adapted to live with it."

  Reengineering Regulation: Maintaining the Competitiveness of the U.S. Capital Markets.

Carter Beese, Jr., J. (CSIS) The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 1995, pp 117-131

"This article examines the forces that are transforming the capital markets around the world. Focusing upon the impact of these changes on the regulatory process, it highlights the needfor a fundamental review of capital markets' regulation. It reviews some of the important steps that regulators have already taken to meet the challenge of the global marketplace and suggests other possible areas for more fundamental reform."

Formulating a Consistent Approach to Monetary Policy

Stern, Gary H. = Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1995 Annual Report, March 1996, pp. 3-19

For the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the goal of monetary policy is to achieve maximum economic performance over time, and the best way to achieve this goal is to maintain low inflation. In this essay, Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, offers some explanations for the benefits of long-run low inflation, with emphasis on resource allocation. He notes that currently there is no adequate method to ensure that short-run monetary policy decisions are consistent with long-run objectives.

IPO Capitalism.

Business Week, December 18, 1995, pp 64-72

"Bond prices are surging. The stock market is on a roll. And Wall Street is bombarded almost daily by companies selling stock for the first time." The boom in these initial public offerings (IPOs) "is on track to raise a staggering $29 billion this year. That influx of cash is the driving force behind the technological revolution that is changing the way we live -- and work."

 America's Amazing IPO Bonanza

Fortune, May 27, 1996, pp. 76-80

Wyatt reports that America is in the midst of an unprecedented new-stock extravaganza as more and more startup companies go public. Although they range from cosmetics makers to drillers to microbreweries, the most vital initial public offerings (IPOs) are coming from the financial service sector and, even more notably, from the technology sector. The IPO boom is invigorating the U.S. economy.

Insurance or Gambling? Derivatives Trading in a World of Risk and Uncertainty

Stout, Lynn A. The Brookings Review, Winter 1996, pp. 38-41"To the extent that derivatives trades reflect risk-reducing hedging, they may indeed provide significants benefits to their users. If, =

however, most derivatives deals involve an element of disagreement-based speculation, the rise of the derivatives markets may pose a serious threat to investor's interests." The author examines the various aspects of the derivatives markets.

 Our Love Affair with Stocks: The Promise -and Perils- of Putting Faith in Wall Street

Business Week, June 3, 1996, pp. 91-98

"The rich, as always, still own the bulk of equities. Yet, more than 51 million Americans now hold shares, up from 6 million in the 1950s."The nation's obsession with the market holds enormous promise for individuals, companies, and the economy. But the stakes are high: How would the new crop of investors react in a crisis? =

 The Increasing Responsibility of Investors

Levitt, Arthur (Chairman, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) Vital Speeches of the Day, June 15, 1996, pp. 517-520

"In the firs three months if this year, net sales of equity mutual funds, at more than $70 billion, amounted to some 4.4% of personal income. On an annualized basis, this percentage is slightly higher than the personal savings rate... The increasing popularity of funds brings increasing responsibilities -- for investors, for the Commission, and for the industry."

Let Them Eat Stocks: A Solution to Downsizing

Cramer, James The New Republic, April 29, 1996, pp.24-25A journalist gives his personal and original solution to downsizing : "There is a simple, purely capitalist solution to this heartless cycle. Just give the laid-off employees stock options, struck the day before the layoffs are announced. Let them participate in the stock appreciation that their firings caused."

 International Finance Regulation Greenspan, Alan Greenspan, Alan , meeting of the Institute of International Finance in Washington April 29, 6pAlan Greenspan called for an evolutionary approach to improving international financial supervision by national authorities, questioning the merit of a proposal for an international regulator. The most constructive way of managing international financial risk, he said, was for supervisors to continue the steady progress made in using technology, making public disclosure of risks, getting to know each other better and improving the legal and institutional structure of financial markets.

  BANKING

 Form Follows Function: The Transformation of Banking

Crane, Dwight B. and Bodie, Zvi Harvard Business Review, March/April 1996, pp.109-117

"Will the banks of the twenty-first century still be banks?" Today, other financial institutions are usurping the roles traditionally played by banks, and banks themselves are reconsidering the services they offer.The authors argue that to understand the new developments on the financial services landscape, one must look at the functions underlying all financial systems (making payments, pooling resources, transfer economic resources, managing risk, price information, handle incentive problems).

Have Borrower Concentration Limits Encouraged Bank Consolidation?

Peek, Joe: Rosengren, Eric S. Peek, Joe: Rosengren, Eric S. New England Economic Review, January/February 1997, pp 37-47"This article examines motivations for bank mergers and their regional patterns, and then considers the outlook for further bank consolidation."

BANKING - FINANCE

The Treasury Securities Market: Overview and Recent Developments

Federal Reserve Bulletin, December 1999 pp 785-806http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/pubs/bulletin/1999/1299lead.pdfAThe market for U.S. Treasury securities is by many measures the largest, most active debt market in the world, and the securities play a pivotal role in world financial markets. The market has evolved over time in keeping with the changing needs of both the Treasury and investors. After describing the market=s structure and examining the factors driving the demand for Treasury securities in some detail, this article discusses recent developments, including the introduction of inflation-indexed securities and a decline in the issuance of Treasury securities.@

Laurence H. Meyer

Lessons from the Asian Crisis: A Central Banker's Perspective

Jerome Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 276http://www.levy.org/docs/wrkpap/papers/276.htmlALaurence H. Meyer, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, presents a central banker's view of the causes of the Asian financial crisis and suggestions for prevention of crises in the future... Meyer's interpretation of the crisis draws heavily upon the work of Hyman P. Minsky, especially his financial instability theory. Meyer finds two general lessons to be learned from the Asian crisis. First, to reduce the vulnerability of an economy to banking and financial crises, a high priority should be given to sound corporate governance, narrow and explicit government guarantees, and adequate prudential supervision of banks. Second, once a crisis has occurred, the first priority should be to repair the damage done to banking and corporate balance sheets. Among the suggestions Meyer offers for preventing a similar crisis are to continue efforts to develop and monitor banking standards and to offer developing countries the assistance they need to meet those standards.@Stanford University. Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace.

McQuillan, Lawrence J.

Case against the International Monetary Fund.

Public Policy Essay. November 1999.http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/publications/epp/98/98a.htmlAIt is time to scrap the IMF and strengthen market-based alternatives that would promote an orderly and efficient international monetary system. Key reforms include floating exchange rates, internationally accepted accounting and disclosure practices, unfettered private financial markets, and fundamental legal, political, and constitutional rules that would allow free markets to emerge and countries to achieve self-sustaining economic growth and development."Jerome Levy Economics Institute Martin Mayer, Martin Risk Reduction in the New Financial Architecture: Realities and Fallacies in International Financial Reform, Public Policy Brief no. 56, 1999http://www.levy.org/docs/ppb/ppb56.pdfAThe causes for the instability that has marked the financial system over past decade lie deep-in the economic theory that urges easy and efficient substitution of one piece of paper for another, in the technology-driven tight articulation of receipts and payments, and in the growth of leverage that diminishes the creditworthiness of major institutions when an interruption in their receipts requires them to seek funds. Many of the proposals aimed at reducing risk in the financial system, however, do not recognize these changes or their importance...Guidelines are needed that reflect the new financial architecture: controls on the creation of leverage in the repo and derivatives markets and limits on banks' freedom to back away from borrowers' cross-border liabilities in currencies other than their own.@

U.S. Congressional Research Service. Sanford, Jonathan E.

Multilateral Development Banks: Issues for the 106th Congress.

Issue Brief. November 8, 1999.AFor 50 years, the MDBs have been major forums for economic cooperation and major vehicles through which the United States and other countries have channeled development aid. In the past decade, the cost of U.S. participation in the MDBs has become controversial. This issue brief provides an overview of the MDBs, U.S. policy and the U.S. policy process, and recent legislation.@

U.S. Congressional Research Service. Nowels, Larry.

Debt Reduction: Initiatives for the Most Heavily Indebted Poor Countries.

Issue Brief. Updated November 19, 1999.http://www.cnie.org/nle/inter-18.html

This report offers a broad overview of the debate concerning debt reduction for poor developing countries. It profiles the scope and structure of debt and reviews previous debt relief strategies and the current HIPC Initiative. It analyzes and compares competing alternatives endorsed by the Administration, congressional activists, NGOs, and other G-7 governments. Several key issues, such as costs, impact, and conditionality, of pending proposals are also assessed."

MONETARY POLICY – BANKING - FINANCE

John H. Makin

Why the Dollar Is Strong

AEI Economic Outlook. . May 2001

http://www.aei.org/eo/eo12888.htm

"The rise in the dollar over the past year by an average of more than 10 percent against other major currencies has been a surprise to many analysts… Many analysts expected that the euro would be the strongest currency of 2001… The broad strength of the dollar, even in the face of a slowing U.S. economy and a falling U.S. stock market, is based upon the determinants of the demand for dollars and the supply of dollars in global foreign exchange markets… During most of the time that the U.S. current account deficit has risen, the dollar has grown stronger."

Lynn Elaine Browne

The Evolution of Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve System Over the Past Thirty Years: An Overview

New England Economic Review. January/February 2001

http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/neer/neer2001/neer101a.pdf

"Over the past thirty years, the activities of the Federal Reserve System have undergone major change… Frank Morris, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston from 1968 to 1988, was a key contributor to all these developments. His influence was felt most strongly in the conduct of monetary policy, in the evolution of the payments system, and in shaping the role that Reserve Banks play in their regions. Accordingly, this conference in his honor focused on these three areas and on the developments that have occurred since 1968 and the prospects and challenges ahead. Three sessions addressed issues in monetary policy, and one each tackled payments and the role of the regional Reserve Banks."

The Fight Against Money Laundering

Economic Perspectives, Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 6, No. 2, May 2001

http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ites/0501/ijee/ijee0501.htm

"Money laundering allows crime to pay by permitting criminals to hide and legitimize proceeds derived from illegal activities. According to one recent estimate, worldwide money laundering activity amounts to roughly $1 trillion a year. These illicit funds allow criminals to finance a range of additional criminal activities. Moreover, money laundering abets corruption, distorts economic decision-making, aggravates social ills, and threatens the integrity of financial institutions. This issue of Economic Perspectives gives some idea of the scope of the problem as well as the way agencies of the U.S. government are cooperating with each other, the private sector, and foreign governments to contain this scourge."

Bank Competition in the New Economy

FRB Dallas. Southwest Economy. March/April 2001. 8p

http://www.dallasfed.org/htm/pubs/swe/3_4_01.html

"Although the banking system has not experienced major problems over the past decade, it has undergone substantial changes; in particular, its market structure has been evolving. This evolution is due primarily to two factors: (1) financial deregulation, in particular the repeal of restrictive laws; and (2) technological innovations related to computers and the Internet. Both factors have the potential to produce long-lasting effects on market structure not only in the banking sector, but also in the financial sector, which includes banking, insurance, securities underwriting and similar businesses. This article explores the likely impact of these recent events on both concentration and competition within the banking and financial sectors."

William R. Keeton

The Transformation of Banking and Its Impact on Consumers and Small Businesses

FRB Kansas. Economic Review First Quarter 2001. 29p

http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/PDF/1q01keet.pdf

"The banking industry has undergone profound changes during the last decade. The most obvious change has been the large number of bank mergers, which have increased both the average size of banks and the area over which they operate… Keeton focuses on the two groups that are most likely to be affected by the transformation of banking—consumers and small businesses. He concludes that the recent changes in banking are likely to benefit consumers and small businesses in most communities, as long as they remain free to choose between small and large banks for their banking services."

David P. Ely and Kenneth J. Robinson

Consolidation, Technology, and the Changing Structure of Banks ’Small Business Lending

FRB Dallas. Economic and Financial Review. First Quarter 201. pp 23-32

http://www.dallasfed.org/htm/pubs/pdfs/efr/efr0101c.pdf

"In this article we summarize some of the ways consolidation and advances in technology may affect small business lending… Although small business lending has increased since 1994, we find that the share of total lending devoted to small business loans has declined. However, the aggregate numbers conceal some important trends across organizations of different sizes. We find evidence that large banks are increasing their presence in the smallest segment of the small business loan market and that the average loan size hasdeclined, especially at larger institutions. Larger banks also appear to have narrowed the gap relative to small banks in their focus on the smallest loans. These trends are consistent with the view that new information technology, most notably credit scoring, is changing the structure of small business lending."

The Rise of Stock Mutual Funds

FRB Dallas. Southwest Economy. January/February 2001.

http://www.dallasfed.org/htm/pubs/swe/1_2_01.html

"Since the early 1990s, U.S. households have increasingly used mutual funds as a way of owning equity… The percentage of all stock assets held in mutual funds almost tripled, from about 8 percent in 1990 to almost 24 percent in 1998…This article reviews several explanations for this trend, including the possible effects of the increasing use of IRA and thrift plans, the aging of the baby boom generation, falling mutual fund costs and rising investor confidence. In addition, the implications of the increased reliance on mutual funds are explored, including effects on labor mobility, consumption and public policy. Finally, the advent of new financial products that may draw some households away from mutual funds is briefly discussed with an eye toward the future evolution of household portfolio behavior."

Joseph Tracy and Henry Schneider

Stocks in the Household Portfolio: A Look Back at the 1990s

FRB New York. Current Issues in Economics and Finance. April 2001. 6p

http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/curr_iss/ci7-4.pdf

"The growing prominence of stocks as a household asset in the 1990s encouraged the view that the United States had become a nation of zealous investors alert to every market development and eager to acquire new stocks. Yet an analysis of the factors behind the rise in the household equity share suggests that exceptionally high returns on stocks—rather than aggressive investment behavior—accounted for much of the increased importance of stocks."

Donald G. Ogilvie (executive vice president, American Bankers Association)

Financial Privacy: The Choice Is in the Mail

National Center for Policy Analysis. .Brief Analysis No. 360, April 27, 2001.

http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba360/ba360.html

"In one of the largest financial-customer notifications ever, banks and other financial institutions are mailing information to every customer of record to clarify how they collect and use people's financial information and what options customers have with regard to the sharing of this information. Many bank customers have already received notices. The mail campaign is a result of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999."

MONETARY POLICY Santomero, Anthony M. (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) The U.S. Experience with a Federal Central Bank System Remarks at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank's 30th Economics Conference, Vienna, June 13, 2002 http://www.phil.frb.org/publicaffairs/president.html International Money and Common Currencies in Historical Perspective  FRB Atlanta, Working Paper 2002-7, June 2002, 27p http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0207.pdf FINANCE Gurule, Jimmy (Treasury Under Secretary) Combating Terrorist Financing Speech to the D.C. Bar Association International Law Section, May 30, 2002. http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/po3135.htm The Accounting Profession:  Status of Panel on Audit Effectiveness Recommendations to Enhance the Self-Regulatory System.   GAO-02-411, May 17. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-411  

Capital Flows Monitor: The U.S. international investment position

From: Financial Markets Center, July 25, 2002, 4p

http://www.fmcenter.org/pdf/capflows072602.pdf

“The U.S. international investment position continues to deteriorate, draping an increasingly ominous cloud over domestic and global economic activity.”

John R.Walter and John A.Weinberg

How Large Is the Federal Financial Safety Net?

Cato Journal, Winter 2002, 25p

http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj21n3/cj21n3-2.pdf

“The various forms of federal government support for private borrowers comprise the federal financial safety net.In this article we estimate the size of the safety net.Specifically,we examine the extent to which the liabilities of private market participants are perceived to enjoy federal government guarantees.Our estimate includes a mixture of elements.Some of the liabilities,such as insured deposits,are explicitly guaranteed.”

W. Scott Frame and Lawrence J. White

Empirical Studies of Financial Innovation: Lots of Talk, Little Action?

FRB Atlanta, Working Paper 2002-12, July 2002, 40p

http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0212.pdf

“This paper reviews the extant empirical studies of financial innovation. Adopting broad criteria, the authors found just two dozen studies, over half of which (fourteen) had been conducted since 2000. Since some financial innovations are examined by more than one study, only fourteen distinct phenomena have been covered. Especially striking is the fact that only two studies are directed at the hypotheses advanced in many broad descriptive articles concerning the environmental conditions (e.g., regulation, taxes, unstable macroeconomic conditions, and ripe technologies) spurring financial innovation. The authors offer some tentative conjectures as to why empirical studies of financial innovation are comparatively rare. Among their suggested culprits is an absence of accessible data. The authors urge financial regulators to undertake more surveys of financial innovation and to make the survey data more available to researchers.”

Mark Kamstra, Lisa Kramer, and Maurice Levi

Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle

FRB Atlanta, Working Paper 2002-13, July 2002, 38p

http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0213.pdf

“This paper investigates the role of seasonal affective disorder (SAD) in the seasonal time-variation of stock market returns. SAD is an extensively documented medical condition whereby the shortness of the days in fall and winter leads to depression for many people. Experimental research in psychology and economics indicates that depression, in turn, causes heightened risk aversion. Building on these links between the length of day, depression, and risk aversion, the authors provide international evidence that stock market returns vary seasonally with the length of the day, a result they call the SAD effect…Overall, the economic magnitude of the SAD effect is large, exceeding that of the tax-loss effect in almost all the countries the authors consider.