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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Rielly, John E. Americans and the World: A Survey at Century’s End.

FOREIGN POLICY, No. 114: 97-113, Spring 1999.

Rielly outlines conclusions from the latest quadrennial survey of American public and leadership opinion sponsored by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. Rielly, president of the Council, notes that perhaps "the most poignant finding in the survey is the dramatic difference in future outlook between the public and their leaders." While leaders express optimism about "a more peaceful" 21st century, "the public fears more bloodshed and violence" than in the current century. Americans "view economic rather than military power as the most significant measure of global strength," says Rielly, and the "number one 'critical threat' to U.S. vital interests in the minds of the public is international terrorism." The bibliographic reference of the survey follows.

American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy 1999 ,

ed. by John E. Rielly. The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1999, 40 p.

AFRICA

Finnegan, William.   The Invisible War.    THE NEW YORKER 74.43: 50-73, Jan. 25, 1999.

This comprehensive account of present-day Sudan where disease, total lack of infrastructure, famine, drought, landmines, inhumane treatment by oppressors in their own country and obliviousness of the outside world -- is extremely depressing, but also should awaken a sense of urgency for what the southern Sudanese hope for, "an American-sponsored, all-parties peace conference for Sudan," Africa's largest country. Finnegan writes of the hundreds of civilian targets in Southern Sudan that have been bombed deliberately by government forces:"If Milosevic were to unleash similar air attacks on Kosovo...the outside world would probably be outraged to the point of action. In southern Sudan, it might as well be happening on the dark side of the moon."

Lesch, Ann M.  Sudan: The Torn Country.   CURRENT HISTORY 98.628: 218-222, May 1999.

The American cruise missile attack on "terrorist " Sudan last August refocused attention on Africa’s largest country, which is also host to the continent’s longest-running civil war. Ann Lesch surveys the ethnoreligious disputes that have fueled the fighting and led to the terrorist label.

Schraeder, Peter J.   Japan’s Quest for Influence in Africa. CURRENT HISTORY 98.628: 232-234, May 1999.

"The evolution of Japanese involvement in Africa from the early 1980s to the present demonstrates Japan’s intention to translate its extraordinary economic power into global influence worthy of a political and economic superpower."

Sparks, Allister.   Mandela’s South Africa – and After. THE WILSON QUARTERLY 23.2: 66-92, Spring 1999.

As South African President Nelson Mandela prepares to step down, critics charge that he laves his country bound on a course to disaster. But the problems that remain pale beside the magnitude of Mandela's accomplishments. Mandela has also had to deal with a country in the throes of three revolutions at once. These include the integration of a society divided by several hundred years of white domination. Secondly, the new government has also been attempting a gigantic economic revolution. The third revolution involves moving South Africa from an economy based on agriculture and mining to one based on exports of manufactured goods.

      ASIA-PACIFIC

Ayoob, Mohammed.Nuclear India and Indian-American Relations.   ORBIS 43.1: 59-76, Winter 1999.

In this article, Mohammed Ayoob explains why the Indian government did what it did when it did, and advises America how to adjust to the new reality.

Weidenbaum, Murray.The Future of Sino-American Relations.     ORBIS 43.2: 223-235, Spring 1999.

"When viewed separately, each of the various aspects of policy involving China – economic, political, military, and environmental – while difficult, is perhaps manageable within a sufficiently tough-minded decision-making process. But no aspect can be approached in isolation from the others and, taken together, they involve ever more complicated interrelationships."

   CIS-NIS

U.S. Congress. Senate.Silk Road Strategy Act of 1999.

(Senate Foreign Relations Committee Report, together with Minority Views. May 11, 1999.)

U.S. Congress, Senate Report 106-45, 28 p.

ftp://ftp.loc.gov/pub/thomas/cp106/sr045.txt

The Silk Road Strategy Act is necessitated by the failure of current U.S. policy and assistance laws to resolve regional conflicts or effectively advance American interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Eight years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Silk Road Strategy Act establishes a policy framework that elevates and differentiates Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from the status of `former Soviet republics' and `newly independent states.' The very use of these labels by U.S. policy makers has frustrated states in the South Caucasus and Central Asia that view themselves as permanently independent and sovereign countries… The goal of the United States should be to promote economic and democratic reforms in the region while helping to develop oil and gas resources in a manner that is beneficial to all states in the region. Specifically, American interests in the region are threefold: (1) to ensure the development of stable, democratic states in the region, including the resolution of regional conflicts; (2) to develop friendly relationships among the states in the region and with the United States and its allies; and (3) to ensure that the economies and the natural resources of the region are developed in a manner dictated by the market, rather than through exploitation by regional, hegemonic powers.

EUROPE

Eizenstat, Stuart E., Under Secretary of State for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs.

The Future of U.S.-EU Relationship.   April 6, 1999, 7 p.

http://www.state.gov/www/policy_remarks/1999/990406_eizenstat_useu.html

Address to the Secretary’s Open Forum.

-- European Union: internal reform, enlargement, and the common foreign and security policy. March 24, 1999.

http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/way.htm

-- Future of U.S.-EU Relationship. Under Secretary of State Eizenstat. April 6, 1999.

http://www.state.gov/www/policy_remarks/1999/990406_eizenstat_useu.html

 

BALKANS

Harris, Marshall Freeman.  Macedonia: The Next Domino?THE NATIONAL INTEREST 55: 42- 46, Spring 1999.

Macedonia’s democracy and independence remain imperiled. While regional forces are largely responsible for this, U.S. policy to date has done little to help a country that may be next in line to experience serious instability.

The Heart of Balkan Darkness.       NATIONAL JOURNAL 31.14: 872-888, April 3, 1999.

In separate articles, National Journal correspondents put the Kosovo crisis in context: Why the Serbs won’t abandon Kosovo, why President Clinton chose to fight over it, why Congress sits on the sidelines, why America’s unmatchable military might is both a blessing and a danger.

Hedges, Chris. Kosovo’s Next Masters.     FOREIGN AFFAIRS 78.3: 24-42, May-June 1999.

"After NATO’s air strikes against Yugoslavia, the Kosovo Liberation Army is girding for a long guerrilla war to win an independent Kosovo and a Greater Albania later. To Washington’s consternation, the KLA radicals have supplanted moderate Kosovar leaders and won the support of most of the Serbian province’s ethnic Albanians. The West is still wedded to autonomy for Kosovo, but Serbian brutality has left the KLA bent on outright secession. So we had better get to know the KLA—because it is not going to go away."

Hooper, James. Kosovo: America’s Balkan Problem.  CURRENT HISTORY 98.627: 159-164, April 1999.

"The Kosovo problem is as much about the resolve of American leadership and the credibility of NATO as it is about the complexities of Balkan politics… Neither the crisis in Kosovo nor the broader problem of instability in the Balkans will be resolved until the United States exercises political and military leadership to do so; this will require sustained presidential attention."

Malcolm, Noel. Kosovo: Only Independence will Work. THE NATIONAL INTEREST 23-26, Winter1998-99.

"Some serious thinking is needed about the possibility of independence as a long-term solution For Kosovo," says Malcolm, who is the author of "Kosovo: A Short History" (New York University Press, 1998). He points to historic evidence to debunk what he terms "the accepted arguments on autonomy and independence." The solution, he says, requires "something along the lines of the settlement that ended the war in Chechnya, with a long interim period of autonomy leading finally to full self-determination." The continuation of the West's present policy, on the other hand, will make Kosovo's problems "far more lethally insoluble in the future."

  LATIN AMERICA

U.S.-Cuba Relations.    CONGRESSIONAL DIGEST 78.3: 65-95, March 1999.

"Should the United States ease its current economic and trade sanctions against Cuba?"

   MIDDLE EAST

Alterman, Jon B.  Thinking Out Loud: Policies Toward Iraq.

Washington, DC, United States Institute of Peace, Feb. 17, 1999, 12 p.

http://www.usip.org/oc/sr/sr990217/sr990217.html

"In the face of persistent crises between Iraq and the international community over Iraq's failure to comply with international agreements governing its chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons development programs, the United States Institute of Peace convened a study group to understand better what options exist to deal with the threats that Iraq poses. Beginning in May 1998 and continuing through the winter, the study group met several times and brought together experts from the worlds of diplomacy, the military, and academia. The study group, whose membership included current and former U.S. government officials, did not seek to arrive at any specific recommendations. Rather, the goal was to develop a deeper understanding of the options that do exist and to think out loud about possible alternative policies."

Gause III, F. Gregory.  Getting it Backward on Iraq.   FOREIGN AFFAIRS 78.3: 54-65, May-June 1999.

"The Clinton Administration supports crippling economic sanctions that punish the Iraqi people but seems ready to live with the demise of international inspections to monitor Saddam Hussein’s nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs. Washington has it exactly backward… Better to have arms inspections without sanctions than sanctions without arms inspections."

Indyk, Martin S., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.  U.S. Policy in the Middle East.

New York, NY, Council on Foreign Relations, April 22, 1999, 10 p.

http://www.foreignrelations.org/public/pubs/indyk.html

"While we will and must lead, we should not go it alone. Containing Saddam Hussein; working for a new government in Iraq; promoting an Arab-Israeli peace; fighting terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction requires the support and cooperation of our regional friends and allies."

Matlak, Regis.Inside Saddam’s Grip.   NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES QUARTERLY 5.2: 1-24, Spring 1999.

http://www.georgetown.edu/sfs/programs/nssp/nssq/current.html

Regis Matlak, a U.S. intelligence officer, has written a superb profile of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's and his 20-year iron grip on power. He analyzes the 62-year old Iraqi leader's political staying power, sketches factors which shaped his world view, and weaves in national and family history as well as regime intrigue into a readable, informative reference. The cult of Saddam's security-conscious personality, his efforts to claim pan-Arab leadership, and the recent Belgrade-Baghdad connection are well documented.

Rubin, Barnett.  Afghanistan Under the Taliban.  CURRENT HISTORY 98.625: 79-91, Feb. 1999.

Rubin provides a comprehensive, understandable background to the current situation in Afghanistan, including the changing geopolitical interests of outside players such as the United States, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and the related evolution of the Islamic ideology by which its Taliban-ruled government is structured. He writes, "Afghanistan has moved from one stage to another of civil war and political disintegration without seeming to get any closer to peace, political order, or sustainable development." The article is pessimistic about the future of that country -- particularly since the August 1998 missile attacks by the U.S. against terrorist training camps there, the retaliatory killing of an Italian United Nations official and the subsequent withdrawal of all UN personnel, all on the eve of the Taliban's campaign for international diplomatic recognition. Rubin spreads the blame around evenly and urges all intervening countries to look at their role in the continuation of this conflict.

  DEFENSE POLICY AND STRATEGY

Blechman, Barry M. & Tamara Cofman Wittes.Defining Moment: The Threat and Use of Force in American Foreign Policy.    POLITICAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY 114.1: 1-30, Spring 1999.

The authors examine the uses of military threats and military interventions in the Bush and first Clinton administrations. Based on case studies and interviews with U.S. decision makers, they conclude that domestic and international political constraints are preventing U.S. leaders from making threats decisive enough to persuade foreign leaders to comply with U.S. demands.

Reiter, Dan. Military Strategy and the Outbreak of International Conflict: Quantitative Empirical Tests, 1903-1992.

JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION 43.3: 366-387, June 1999.

"States with maneuver strategies [are] significantly more likely to initiate disputes in general, although not disputes that escalate to the use of force. However, dispute participants with maneuver strategies [are] significantly more likely to escalate a dispute to war if the adversary [employs] a military strategy that [emphasizes] attrition."

Renner, Michael.  Ending Violent Conflict.    Worldwatch Paper 146, April 1999, 71 p.

http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/paper/146.html

"There is no single path to ending conflict. Renner makes a convincing case for a multi-layered strategy that includes: pursuing disarmament; promoting conflict prevention and mediation; building effective, permanent peacekeeping forces; protecting human rights and prosecuting war criminals; and invigorating global institutions like the United Nations and the World Court."

Tenet, George J.

Dangers and Threats to the U.S.: Countries that Could Cause Problems.

VITAL SPEECHES 65.10: 293-299, March 1, 1999.

In his Feb. 2, 1999 address to the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency sums up the issues that threaten U.S. citizens and interests. "What is noteworthy is the manner in which so many issues are now intertwined and so many dangers mutually reinforcing," he says.

  AIR FORCE

Conetta, Carl and Charles Knight. The Readiness Crisis of the U.S. Air Force: A Review and Diagnosis.

Cambridge, MA, Commonwealth Institute, Project on Defense Alternatives Briefing Report 10, April 22, 1999, 73 p.

The Air Force’s recent readiness problems can be traced to three principal sources: (i) unexpected demand for spare parts in 1996 and an understatement of the requirements for parts in 1997 that left insufficient parts in the pipeline for 1998, (ii) imprudent choices in the management of pilot inventory during the draw-down earlier in the decade, resulting in pilot training levels well below sustainment levels, and (iii) the burden of carrying excess infrastructure – i.e., bases that the service neither wants nor needs.

  ARMS SALES

Parker, Christopher S.

New Weapons for Old Problems: Conventional Proliferation and Military Effectiveness in Developing States.   INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 23.4: 119-147, Spring 1999.

Christopher Parker of the University of Chicago seeks to clarify the consequences of increased arms sales to developing countries. Parker maintains that the critical issue is not the quantity of modern conventional weapons and technology transfers, but the ability of states to assimilate them effectively into their arsenals.

  DEFENSE BUDGET

Capitol Hill’s Hawks Unswayed by Pentagon Budget Plan.

NATIONAL JOURNAL’S CONGRESSDAILYAM: 3-10, May 13, 1999.

"The Pentagon’s pending $280.8 billion FY2000 budget request represents the first increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War. However, defense hawks on Capitol Hill argue it falls far short of addressing near-term shortfalls in military pay and the procurement of new weapons."

Dudney, Robert S.Washington Watch: Fifteen in a Row.   AIR FORCE MAGAZINE 82.4: April 1999, 7 p.

http://www.afa.org/magazine/watch/0499watch.html

Behind claims of major budget "increases," a long decline in defense spending continues. So do the problems in readiness and modernization.

  DEFENSE INDUSTRY

Markusen, Ann.   The Rise of World Weapons.  FOREIGN POLICY 114: 40-51, Spring 1999.

"American-made weapons are the most coveted in the world. But soon, the ‘Made in America’ label may be hard to find. Defense megamergers across borders are creating a handful of global corporations capable of stockpiling the world’s weapons, drawing on high-tech parts and expertise from dozens of countries. Governments are left with two choices: either trust their security to investment bankers or start working together to turn transnational defense mergers into good policy."

  INFORMATION WARFARE

Kreisher, Otto.  Next Steps in Information Warfare.     AIR FORCE MAGAZINE 82.6: June 1999, 7 p.

http://www.afa.org/magazine/0699nextstep.html

"Napoleon said war is 90 percent information-and that was 200 years ago."

See Also the recent Rand report

"Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare"

at http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1016/

  LANDMINES

Flynn, Michael.  Political Minefield. THE BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS  49-53, March-April 1999.

http://www.bullatomsci.org/issues/1999/ma99/ma99flynn.html

The author airs the tensions between the deminers in the field and those who lobby to ban anti-personnel landmines. He writes, for example, that deminers believe that funds generated by the International Campaign to Ban Landmines "would be better spent actually clearing mines", and that the "banners" are devoting too much effort and money on international conferences and public-education campaigns. Flynn also notes that many believe the publicized numbers of landmines worldwide to be inflated. Deminers say that the widely-used 110 million figure, instead of a more realistic 60 to 70 million, makes their job look too much like "Mission Impossible." In his view, progress "should be measured by how much land is cleared, not by how many mines are removed."

  NATO

The Alliance’s Strategic Concept. ( Approved by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Washington D.C. on 23rd and 24th April 1999), 17 p.

http://nato50.gov/text/99042411.htm

NATO's 19 leaders have agreed on a new Strategic Concept to guide the Alliance in the coming years. This essential document sets forth NATO's role in Euro-Atlantic security and provides a strategic framework for Alliance military planners. The 1999 Strategic Concept is the sixth such document to be approved by NATO. The last Strategic Concept was produced in 1991.

Jackson, Bruce Pitcairn (President of the U.S. Committee on NATO)  The Conservative Case for NATO.

POLICY REVIEW 94: 45-57, April & May 1999. "Why abandon an institution that has served us so well?"

Daalder, Ivo H.   NATO at 50: The Summit and Beyond.

Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, Policy Brief #48. April 1999, 7 p.

http://www.brook.edu/comm/policybriefs/pb048/pb48.htm

At the threshold of a new century, NATO needs a new purpose. A NATO maintained solely as a hedge against an uncertain future (including a possibly resurgent Russia) will become increasingly marginal to the interests of its members. A shift in emphasis to defending common global interests risks magnifying discord among Alliance members. Instead, NATO’s purpose should now be to extend security and stability to all of Europe. This will require placing more emphasis on the ability to conduct crisis management operations in the region and taking practical, visible steps to keep the door to NATO membership wide open.

NATO’s 50^th Anniversary: Broadening and Redefining Our Transatlantic Partnership.

CONGRESSIONAL DIGEST 78.4: 97-128, April 1999.

The challenge for NATO leaders will be to ensure that the alliance of the future is strong and flexible enough to face new potential threats to peace and security such as ethnic intolerance, terrorism, and the spread of weapons of mass destruction while maintaining its fundamental commitment to collective defense.

Wyllie, James H  .NATO’s Bleak Future.   PARAMETERS 28.4: 113-123, Winter 1998-99.

http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/98winter/wyllie.htm

Contending that NATO should not have agreed to enlarge, Wyllie foresees NATO's future as "a declining collective defense organization succumbing to the political pressures and temptations of a collective security." He contends that the formal NATO membership of at least 19, and "the legitimization of deep Russian penetration into the heart of NATO affairs, will jeopardize effective NATO decision-making." Wyllie predicts that NATO appears "set to become a loose political association within which ad hoc, shifting coalitions will compete over a variety of issues not commensurate with the security of all the members."

See also the NATO50 Summit Web Site at http://nato50.gov,

The Policy News & Information Service’s NATO at 50

at http://www.policy.com/issuewk/1999/0419_68/index.html

and USIA Electronic Journal 4.1: March 1999

on NATO’s 50^th Anniversary

at http://www.usia.gov/journals/journals.htm

-- Juggling the Bear: assessing NATO enlargement in light of Europe's past and Asia's future. March 1999.

http://www.usafa.af.mil/inss/ocp24.htm

-- NATO at 50: the summit and beyond. April 1999.

http://www.brook.edu/comm/PolicyBriefs/pb048/pb48.htm

-- NATO at 50: what now, what next, what else? February 10, 1999.

http://www.csis.org/euro/NATOat50.pdf

  NONPROLIFERATION

Fetter, Steve. (University of Maryland. School of Public Affairs)  The Future of Nuclear Arms Control.

Paper prepared for the American Physical Society Centennial Symposium on the History of Physics in National Defense, Atlanta, May 24, 1999.

http://www.puaf.umd.edu/papers/fetter/APS.pdf

"Physicists have been instrumental in formulating arms control and nonproliferation agreements and in laying the technical foundation for their verification. During the last decade these efforts have borne much fruit, fertilized by the disintegration of the Soviet Union. There has also been great progress in nonproliferation. Unfortunately, there's still much cause for concern. Nuclear weapons remain a real and present danger to the security of the United States - -the largest threat, and, in some sense, the only significant threat."

Russia’s Nukes.

THE BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS 55.3: 56-69, May-June 1999.

"Should the United States help Russia’s still-troubled nuclear enterprise by helping Minatom? Should it do more to help Russian weapons scientists? And if it’s going to pay the bill for the ‘disposition’ of Russian plutonium, shouldn’t the United States encourage Russia to dispose of it the cheapest and fastest way?"

U.S. General Accounting Office.

Weapons of Mass Destruction: Effort to Reduce Russian Arsenals May Cost More, Achieve Less than Planned. (Report to the House Committee on Armed Services)

Washington, DC, U.S. General Accounting Office, April 13, 1999, 28 p.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/ns99076.pdf

Through its Cooperative Threat Reduction program, since the early 1990s, the Department of Defense has supported Russia‘s design and construction of two facilities intended to promote U.S. national security by helping to reduce Russian arsenals of nuclear and chemical weapons. In this report, the GAO addresses the concerns expressed by the House Committee on Armed Services about the cost of the Mayak and Shchuch’ye facilities and the U.S. national security objectives.

  PEACEKEEPING

Burk, James. Public Support for Peacekeeping in Lebanon and Somalia: Assessing the Casualties Hypothesis.

POLITICAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY 114.1: 53-78, Spring 1999. James Burk challenges the hypothesis that public support for peacekeeping missions vanishes once casualties are taken. He identifies logical problems with the underlying theory and shows that its empirical predictions are not supported in the critical cases of Lebanon and Somalia.

Pomper, Miles A.  Keeping the Peace: Where and Why?   CQ WEEKLY 57.12: 691-693, March 20, 1999.

"Lawmakers ask themselves where – and if – U.S. should intervene abroad. In the post-Cold War world, the United States finds itself assuming major responsibility for coping with a series of religious, political and ethnic conflicts that previously had simmered on the back burners."

  SECURITY IN ASIA

Talbott, Strobe. Dealing with the Bomb in South Asia.  FOREIGN AFFAIRS : 110-122, March-April 1999.

Nations throughout the world viewed the nuclear tests conducted last May by India and Pakistan as a double setback: for peace on the subcontinent and for worldwide nonproliferation efforts, says Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott. The explosions also had "severe" consequences for U.S. policy toward South Asia, derailing "an initiative by the United States to put its relations with both India and Pakistan on sounder footing," he notes. Talbott says the U.S. is encouraging India and Pakistan to stabilize their nuclear rivalry at the lowest possible level, ban further tests, and embrace frequent, high-level bilateral talks to ease tensions.

U.S. Dept. of Defense.

Report to Congress on Theater Missile Defense Options for the Asia-Pacific Region.

Washington, DC, U.S. Dept. of Defense, May 4, 1999, 15 p.

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/May1999/b05041999_bt211-99.html or

http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/tmd050499.pdf or

http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/tmd050499.doc

This report quantifies the architecture force structure needed to provide coverage against specific theater ballistic missile threats to most of the territories for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. This defense also provides protection of the critical assets identified by the U.S. intelligence community.

  TERRORISM

Freedberd, Jr., Sydney J. & Marilyn Werber Serafini.     Be Afraid, Be Moderately Afraid.

NATIONAL JOURNAL 31.13: 806-817, March 17, 1999.

"The threat from biological weapons can be overstated, but it is real. More frightening may be the inadequacy of the public health system to cope with a bio-attack."

Henderson, Donald A. The Looming Threat of Bioterrorism.  SCIENCE 283: 1279-1282, Feb. 26, 1999.

The author describes the growing public awareness of the threat of bioterrorism, and explains why microbial agents such as smallpox and anthrax pose the greatest threat. The author calls for greater involvement of the civilian medical and public health communities and a strengthening of the "public health and infectious disease infrastructure." The author believes that teams with bioweapons expertise should be developed at the state and local levels, as a counterpart to existing National Guard chemical-weapons detection teams. He concludes that the federal government should increase funding to train primary-care and emergency-room doctors and nurses, and state and local health officers in the "detection, surveillance and management of epidemic disease."

Maier, Timothy W.  Is U.S. Ready for Cyberwarfare?   INSIGHT ON THE NEWS: 18-19, 44, April 5-12, 1999.

"Terrorists and global crime syndicates have targeted the U.S. government and corporate America for attack. And the PC may be the ultimate weapon of mass destruction.

McCutcheon, Chuck.  ‘Homeland Defense’: Mobilizing Against Terrorism.

CQ WEEKLY 57.10: 522-528, March 6, 1999.

Federal, state and local officials are working to increase cooperation and improve training for those who must respond to chemical, biological or nuclear attacks within U.S. borders.

  MISCELLANEOUS

Dobbs, Michael.Becoming Madeleine Albright.WASHINGTON POST MAGAZINE: 11-31, May 2, 1999.

The author gives a fascinating account of Albright’s Washington odyssey.

Harden, Blaine.Playing Chicken with Milosevic. NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE: 38-41, April 25, 1999.

Ten years ago, Milo Djukanovic was one of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's hand-picked Communist enforcers in Montenegro. Today, as President of Montenegro, Djukanovic has transformed himself into a rarity in the Balkans a democratically-elected leader who has embraced the republic's Muslim and ethnic Albanian minorities, and guaranteed their civil rights. Djukanovic has managed to keep his former mentor at arm's-length through a game of "cat-and-mouse" that has variously involved populism, police muscle, cigarette smuggling and jokes about Milosevic's wife (who, in the author's words, is widely resented locally as a "low-wattage Stalinist shrew"). This article, based on an interview New York Times reporter Harden held with Djukanovic in early April, reveals the Montenegrin leader as an insightful and pragmatic individual who has gained high-level support in the Clinton administration. Djukanovic has described the Milosevic campaign in Kosovo as "insane" and, according to Harden, warned NATO long before the airstrikes commenced that bombing would be a disaster for the Kosovo Albanians. He laments that the NATO airstrikes have finally given Milosevic an excuse to intervene in Montenegro.

Kaufman, Chaim D. When All Else Fails: Ethnic Population Transfers and Partitions in the Twentieth Century.  INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 23.2: 120-156, Fall 1998.

Kaufman examines the benefits and dilemmas of population transfers in ethnic conflict management. He says that while traditional policy has been to encourage multiculturalism, the increasing outbreak of ethnic violence may point toward the separation of populations as a new possible solution. The author examines four cases of partition and population transfers: Ireland, India, Palestine, and Cyprus. Using these case studies, he addresses the question: "If the logic of demographic separation is correct, why were the partitions and population transfers in these four cases so violent?"

Maynes, Charles W. Squandering Triumph.  FOREIGN AFFAIRS 78.1: 15-22, Jan.-Feb. 1999.

The author believes that the United States, and thus the West, failed in the post-Cold War era by being overoptimistic about the power of markets, misunderstanding ethnic problems, and operating with outmoded military doctrine. Maynes suggests that the United States believed economic reform would bring political reform, while free trade would democratize every country in the world. Additionally, he writes, the West assumed that all people wanted to live together but were thwarted only "by bad leaders or meddling foreign governments." Finally, he points out that the United States continues to rely on a doctrine of military deterrence. Maynes believes the U.S. should quit trying to deter countries from doing bad things outside their borders and instead compel them to do good things inside their borders. He concludes that the U.S. and its allies have a great opportunity to succeed in the next millenium if they display a larger vision of the future.

Rodman, Peter W.Foreign Policy and Domestic Scandal. THE NATIONAL INTEREST : 27-31, Winter 1998-99.

Rodman examines the link between foreign policy and domestic scandal using four categories: how foreign leaders develop their policy toward the United States during a domestic crisis; how such a crisis distorts U.S. policy-making; how much it distracts the President's attention; and what impact it has on the power balance between Congress and the President. The author discusses the Nixon administration's record on Vietnam and the 1973 Arab-Israeli War during Watergate, and the Clinton administration's actions in the Middle East, Northern Ireland and the Balkans during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. According to Rodman, "foreign challenges do not necessarily ease up to allow the United States to play out its domestic dramas... [they] still cry out for American leadership, and domestic preoccupation with a scandal cannot but have consequences."

Starobin, Paul.  The Liberal Hawk Soars. NATIONAL JOURNAL 31.20: 1310-1316, May 15, 1999.

NATO’s Balkans campaign puts in stark relief a dramatic change in American political thought – the replacement of New Left pacifism with the somewhat surprising theology of liberal hawkism.

January 31, 2000

SUBJECT: URLs on NonProliferation, National Missile Defense, and Security

 

NONPROLIFERATION

 

-- Assessing U.S. Dismantlement and Nonproliferation Assistance programs in the Newly Independent States.

Monterey Institute of International Studies. Center for Nonproliferation Studies, NISNP Conference, Monterey, California, December 11-13, 1999.

http://www.cns.miis.edu/cns/projects/nisnp/ctrconf/index.htm

"In an ongoing two-year research project funded in part by a grant from the

Smith Richardson Foundation, the NISNP is undertaking an assessment of the

effectiveness of U.S. dismantlement and nonproliferation assistance in the

countries of the former Soviet Union."

-- Nonproliferation Regime under Siege.

(a participant in the negotiation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and later U.S. Ambassador to the Geneva Disarmament Conference, is a consulting Professor at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC))  Stanford University, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Working Paper. Sept. 1999.

http://www.stanford.edu/group/CISAC/test/pub/bunn-npt.pdf

"The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of 'loose nukes' and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia - - with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese 'one China' agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.

This paper will discuss the effect which some of these developments had on the 1999 Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) parties to prepare for review of the NPT in 2000, and speculate about their likely future effect on the regime."

-- Nonproliferation Regimes at Risk.

Michael Barletta and Amy Sands, Eds.  Monterey Institute of International Studies. Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Nov. 1999. (CNS Occasional Papers; No. 3)

http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/opapers/op3/index.htm

http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/opapers/op3/op3.pdf

"The U.S. Senate's rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in

October 1999 has focused international attention on the challenge of

sustaining international nonproliferation regimes into the coming century.

Indeed, at present most of the nonproliferation regimes (i.e., treaties,

organizations, and the norms they promote) are under siege. Proliferation

challenges have intensified over the last two years, and have come in many

forms and on many different fronts, including:

. Russia's economic collapse and the growing difficulty of safeguarding its

vast arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and related material,

technology, and know-how;

. emerging Indo-Pakistani nuclear and missile arms races;

. Iraq's defiance of United Nations Security Council-mandated weapons

inspections;

. North Korean nuclear and missile brinkmanship;

. fractious NPT PrepComs auguring likely disputes at the Review Conference in

2000;

. increased risks of chemical, biological, and radiological terrorism;

. erosion of U.S.-Russian cooperation on nonproliferation; and

. widespread complacency among the public at large and their elected

representatives.

These and other developments have undermined the nonproliferation regimes to

such a degree that their long-term viability is now in question…"

-- Project on Global Nuclear Materials Management. Report.

Nunn, Sam, Project Chair.

Center for Strategic and International Studies , Jan. 2000 24.95 pa 144p

ISBN 0-89206-359-9

http://www.csis.org/pubs/gnmmthreat.html

http://www.csis.org/pubs/faxform.html

"The risk of increased proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials is one of the most important security threats facing the United States and the world. To ensure the safe, secure, and legitimate use of nuclear materials, the United States must work with other states and international organizations to create a new global approach to both the traditional threats of nuclear weapons and the challenges of the emerging new nuclear

era. This report reviews five key areas that have emerged and developed during the past decade: (1) funding nuclear security; (2) creating an international spent fuel facility to aid the Russian nuclear complex; (3) commercializing the excess defense infrastructure; (4) using transparency to ensure the safe management of nuclear materials worldwide; and (5) maintaining the leadership of the U.S. domestic nuclear infrastructure. The report recommends that U.S. policymakers cooperate with Russia to manage the eroding controls within the former Soviet Union and to rebuild U.S.

leadership in nonproliferation, materials management, and nuclear technology."

-- TOXIC ARCHIPELAGO: 

preventing proliferation from the former Soviet chemical and biological weapons complexes. Report.

by Amy E. Smithson.

Henry L. Stimson Center, Dec. 1999, 14.00 pa 117p (Report No. 32)

http://www.stimson.org/pubs/cwc/toxicarch.pdf

http://www.stimson.org/pubs/cwc/execsumta.htm

http://www.stimson.org/pubs/cwc/execsum.pdf

http://www.stimson.org/pubs/order.htm

"This in-depth report offers a detailed account of efforts by the international community to prevent 'brain drain' from former Soviet chemical and biological weapons institutes. Based on extensive field work involving interviews with scientists and government officials, the report closely examines the international programs that seek to provide chemical and biological weaponeers with opportunities to engage in peaceful, collaborative research that has commercial potential. Given the number of institutes and individuals with expertise in chemical and biological weaponry that have been virtually without the financial support of their domestic governments since the beginning of 1992, this report provides an overview of a significant and complex proliferation dilemma and appraises the efforts being made to address it."

-- U.S.-Russian Efforts to Redirect the Russian Nuclear Weapon Complex.

Russian American Nuclear Security Advisory Council and Henry L. Stimson Center Committee on Nuclear Policy, Nov, 4, 1999.

http://www.princeton.edu/~ransac/reports/oct99.html

"On November 4, the Russian American Nuclear Security Advisory Council (RANSAC) and the Henry L. Stimson Center's Committee on Nuclear Policy held a briefing on issues related to the downsizing and transformation of Russia's nuclear weapons complex. The U.S. and Russia have been pursuing a 'Nuclear Cities Initiative' (NCI) to help develop new, non-military job opportunities for excess weapon scientists and workers in Russia's ten closed 'nuclear cities.' The NCI, in conjunction with other programs led by the Energy, State, and Defense Departments, is designed to guard against so-called 'brain drain' risks, to allow the Russian government to close facilities and eliminate excess weapon production capacity in an orderly way, and to eliminate nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. The U.S. Congress, however, has recently expressed doubts about the value and effectiveness of this engagement by scaling back funding for the NCI and other programs. The purpose of this meeting was to present a variety of perspectives - - from U.S. and European analysts, Congress, and the Clinton Administration - - on the challenges faced by efforts to help Russia transform its nuclear cities."

-- WEAPONS PROLIFERATION AND EXPORT CONTROLS IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: implications for strategic stability in Asia.

By Gary K. Bertsch & Anupam Srivastava.

National Bureau of Asian Research, 1999, 9.00 pa, 30p (ACCESSASIA

REVIEW; Vol. 3, No. 1)

http://www.nbr.org/publications/review/vol3no1/essay.html

http://www.nbr.org/publications/review/order_form.html

"Though the curtain came down on East-West confrontation with the end of the Cold War, consensus on the agenda of East-West cooperation and the yardsticks of its measurement have proved to be no less contentious. Russia and the former Soviet republics are embarked on an arduous journey of transition. State institutions designed for centralized coordination and control are being restructured to respond to a democratic form of governance and free-market based economy. The disappointing performance of the civilian sector has increased pressure on the national leadership to step up production and export of military-relevant goods and technologies, as these

states still enjoy residual comparative advantage in select military sectors. At the same time, the states of the Former Soviet Union are not only sensitive to the dangers posed by unrestrained proliferation of military-relevant goods and technologies, they are also bound by the commitments undertaken by joining international nonproliferation regimes.

It is within the above context that this paper provides a detailed discussion of the legal and institutional bases of controls set up by Russia and other states of the FSU to regulate the transfer of WMDs, advanced conventional weapons, delivery systems, and related technologies. The paper examines the salient weapons transfers by Russia to China and India and the overall impact of these transfers on the strategic stability of Asia. It then assesses the state of current U.S. assistance to Russia and the FSU and

identifies the scope for enhancing U.S. and Western assistance as well as the inherent limitations in that process. Finally, specific areas for future research are pointed out."

nato

-- NATO: progress toward more mobile and deployable forces.

Report to the Senate Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Defense.

U.S. General Accounting Office, Sept. 1999. (GAO/NSIAD-99-229)

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/ns99229.pdf

"As NATO members' forces have become smaller in size and the composition of those forces has changed, NATO allies have become more mobile and deployable as envisioned by the strategic concept. Our analysis of 10 indicators for the 13 countries' military forces indicates that each country has acquired specific equipment to increase mobility, and some have reorganized and restructured forces to make them more deployable.

Almost all countries have either increased or maintained existing capabilities for airlift, sealift, and in-flight refueling, which combined ith force reductions would indicate greater mobility and deployability of existing forces. Other indicators we assessed also show general gains in the mobility and deployability of forces. However, the alliance still faces

challenges to continue to improve mobility and deployability capabilities. Recognizing that challenges still exist, NATO launched the Defense Capabilities Initiative at the April 1999 summit."

 

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE

-- National Missile Defense Policy. Remarks by Walter B. Slocombe Under

Secretary of Defense for Policy.

Center for Strategic and International Studies, Nov. 5, 1999.

http://www.csis.org/html/sf991105Slocombe.html

"In summary, our planning and our development, our technological work for an NMD system is well advanced. It seeks to anticipate future rogue state threats and to develop systems that can defend against such threats, which I have to say appear very close on the horizon. Our NMD program remains on a highly accelerated track to ensure that we are positioned to respond in a timely fashion. And we continue to work with Russia to pursue negotiated changes to the ABM Treaty so that the Treaty can be preserved while we maintain our option to deploy a national missile defense system."

-- National Missile Defense Review Committee Report (Welch Report).

U.S. Dept. of Defense. Ballistic Missile Defense Organization. Nov. 1999.

http://www.clw.org/coalition/welch1199.htm

http://www.acq.osd.mil/bmdo/bmdolink/pdf/welch.pdf

See also:

http://www.clw.org/coalition/briefv3n20.htm

"The NMD program is characterized by a combination of challenges that add up to severe demands on management. They include the urgent need (leading to a planned high-risk schedule), first use advanced technology, complex system architecture, compressed and concurrent schedules, long development times and long operational life span, complications from arms control agreements, high cost, and participation by a multitude of government organizations and the Services. These program characteristics generate some unique management issues that demand a high degree of clarity in assigning authority and responsibility. As noted in this report, instead of unusual clarity, there is unusual fragmentation and confusion about authority and responsibility…"

SECURITY

-- After Kosovo: implications for U.S. strategy and coalition Warfare.

U.S. National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies. Topical Symposium, Nov. 16-17, 1999. Executive Summary.

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/symposia/Topical99/summary.html

"The panel discussions addressed Kosovo strategy; effective engagement, matching ends and means; managing conflict and post-conflict objectives; implications for U.S. forces; and implications for coalition operations. Additional areas addressed included U.S. and European relations, de-Balkanizing the Balkans; lessons of Kosovo; and Kosovo from a Russian perspective."

-- Building Security in Post-Cold War Eurasia: the OSCE and U.S. Foreign policy.

by P. Terrence Hopman.

United States Institute of Peace, USIP Peaceworks No. 31, Sept. 1999.

http://205.252.114.22/pubs/Peaceworks/pwks31.pdf

"In the period since the end of the Cold War, the security landscape in Eurasia has changed dramatically. The nature of the European security PROBLEMATIQUE requires a new and different response from all institutions playing a role in the security arena . The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is especially well positioned to respond to the complexity of post-Cold War conflict . Although often undervalued by U. S. policymakers and the media and generally unknown to the public, the OSCE has the po tential to assist in preventing, managing, and resolving conflicts that have surfaced in Europe since the late 1980s. U. S . policy could pursue modest measures to enhance the OSCE's effectiveness in managing conflicts of the kind that have appeared in Eurasia since 1990, and thereby strengthen the organization ."

-- European Common Foreign, Security and Defense Policies - - implications for the United States and the Atlantic Alliance.

U.S. Congress. House. Committee on International Relations. Full Committee Meeting, Nov. 10, 1999.

http://www.house.gov/international_relations/full/fullhear.htm

http://www.house.gov/international_relations/press/6pr111099.htm

Committee Chairman Gilman:

"NATO may have come under some unexpected criticism in this country of late, but perhaps the only thing that is more likely than European agriculture policy to upset Americans is the idea that the EU wants to displace NATO as the main security structure in the Euro-Atlantic area.

European political, foreign policy, and security unification clearly poses a host of challenges for the United States:

. We may have a 'Mr. Europe' to call, but will he be able to talk back without checking in 15 capitals?

. Will European foreign policy be the 'least common denominator?'

. Will Europeans get together mainly about the fact that they may resent American initiatives?

. Will Europe really develop a military force that will operate independently of NATO and the United States? Will Europe divert resources and forces away from NATO to create independent capabilities? If so, who will cover the slack created in those NATO functions, especially with European defense spending on the downturn?

. Will the EU discriminate against non-EU European NATO allies? These are among the questions I hope we can address during today's session."

-- National Security Strategy for a New Century. Report.

U.S. President. Executive Office. National Security Council, December 1999.

http://www2.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/NSC/html/documents/nssrpref-1299.html

http://www2.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/NSC/html/documents/nssr-1299.pdf

"On January 4, 2000 President Clinton transmitted the 1999 National Security

Strategy Report to Congress, as required annually by the Goldwater-Nichols

Act of 1986…The three core objectives of U.S. national security strategy are to enhance

America's security, to bolster America's economic prosperity, and to promote

democracy abroad. Central to the President's strategy for achieving these

aims is U.S. engagement and leadership in world affairs… The report also emphasizes that we must sustain our commitment to America's diplomacy. Every dollar we devote to preventing conflicts, promoting democracy, opening markets, and fighting disease and hunger brings a sure return in security and long-term savings. Working with Congress, we were able to provide enhanced funding for international affairs efforts and UN arrears, but we need to sustain our commitments in the years ahead."

-- War in Chechnya: what is at stake?by Ariel Cohem. Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 1339. Nov. 30, 1999.

http://www.heritage.org/library/backgrounder/bg1339.html  http://www.heritage.org/library/backgrounder/pdf/bg_1339.pdf

"The war in Chechnya is more about Russian politics than about a legitimate response to security problems Russia faces in the Northern Caucasus. This war is not in the interest of the Russians, the Chechens, or the other peoples of the Northern or Southern Caucasus. Continuing hostilities may endanger the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries of the Southern Caucasus. Moreover, they could threaten the transportation routes of Caspian oil and the potential development of a new Silk Road - - a land route connecting Europe with the Far East via the Caucasus and Central Asia.

The hostilities also threaten the future of Russian democracy, breed xenophobia, and jeopardize civilian control of the military. Thus, the atrocities and the indiscriminate use of military power against civilians must be stopped."

InfoAlert 2 Defense & International Relations  April - May - June 2002

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION

1. “Assessing U.S. Proposals to Strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention.”

Tucker, Jonathan; Zilinskas, Raymond Arms Control Today 32.3: 10-14, April 2002.

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_04/tuczilapril02.asp The authors, with the Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Program at the Monterey Institute's Center for Nonproliferation Studies, examine the continuing lack of an enforcement mechanism for the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). With multilateral talks suspended from July 2001 until November 2002, the authors suggest that treaty members have time to evaluate proposed U.S. alternatives to a rejected draft protocol. They analyze the U.S. package and indicate that some of the measures could be effective in addressing non-compliance and bioterrorism "but only if they are broadened and converted into legally binding multilateral arrangements." They conclude that reliance solely upon "domestic legislation and existing multilateral arrangements, as proposed by the United States, would not be sufficient to reinforce the international ban on acquisition and use of biological weapons (BW) or to address BWC compliance concerns." In an historical sidebar, they examine past U.N. field investigations of alleged chemical weapons use in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Azerbaijan, because investigations of BW use and suspect disease outbreaks would entail similar procedures. Investigations in Mozambique and Azerbaijan showed, under optimal conditions, the possibility for rapid, cheap and meaningful results.

See also “Weapons of Mass Destruction: The New Strategic Framework”

Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 7, No. 2, July 2002 http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/0702/ijpe/ijpe0702.htm

COUNTER-TERRORISM

2. “Answering America’s 9/11 Call.”

Vital Speeches of the Day 68.15: 465-469, May 15, 2002.

Homeland Defense and how the private sector can help meet America’s No.1 Public Challenge. Address by Philip A. Odeen, Chairman, TRW Inc., delivered to the Chicago Executives’ Club, Chicago, Illinois, February 21, 2002.

3. “Bombing bin Laden: Assessing the Effectiveness of Air Strikes as a Counter-Terrorism Strategy.”

Michele L. Malvesti Fletcher Forum 26.1: 17-29, Winter 2002. “An evaluation of the United States’ three previous CT military air strikes … reveals that this option is a blunt, ineffective instrument that creates a cycle of vengeance.”

4. “NATO and the War on Terrorism.” Philip H. Gordon Brookings Review 20.3: 36-38, Summer 2002.

“Even with all the right reforms, NATO will probably not again become the central defense organization it was during the Cold War or even during the Balkan wars of the 1990s. But it remains an essential tool with which the United States and its key allies can coordinate their militaries, promote the unification of Europe, maintain peace in the Balkans, and quite possibly fight major military operations anywhere in the world.”

5. “Redefining NATO’s Mission: Preventing WMD Terrorism.” Richard G. Lugar Washington Quarterly 25.3: 7-13, Summer 2002. “The U.S. senator advocates that, at the November summit in Prague, NATO should define a new mission for itself to address the foremost security challenge of our time: combating the ‘vertex of evil’ between weapons of mass destruction and terrorism.”

6. “September 11 and Northeast Asia: Change and Uncertainty in Regional Security.”

Gill Bates Brookings Review 20.3: 43-46, Summer 2002.

“Although the post-September 11 U.S. counterterrorism effort has not directly involved Northeast Asia, key players in the region have nevertheless felt its effects in ways that will have significant long-term, security implications for their relations with the United States. In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. security relationships with Japan, China, and North Korea continue to change in important ways. Though the three countries are somewhat peripheral to the core counterterrorism campaign in Central and Southwest Asia, Washington will need to manage its relations with Tokyo, Beijing, and Pyongyang carefully to keep them from diminishing or diverting its attention from the global war on terror.”

DEFENSE INDUSTRY

7. “Profiteers of War.” (Special Investigative Report) Julian E. Barnes

U.S. News & World Report

132.16: 20-24, May 13, 2002.

”How some of America’s biggest companies are making millions off the defense buildup since 9/11.”

8. “Uncle Sam Buys an Airplane.” Fallows, James Atlantic Monthly 289.6: 62-74, June 2002. In the fall of 2001, Lockheed Martin was awarded the contract to produce the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), the largest military contract in history, winning out over rival Boeing. The JSF project was initiated by the Pentagon a decade ago as a solution to the chronic cost overruns of military aircraft procurement and huge expense of designing different planes for the Air Force, Navy and Marines. Much as auto manufacturers use the same chassis, engine and drive train on which to build different models of SUVs, minivans or trucks, the JSF is the first military aircraft designed to be adaptable to the needs of the different branches using a single airframe and engine. The key advantage of Lockheed Martin's bid was its development of an innovative "lift-fan" propulsion system for the Marine Corps' vertical-takeoff version of the plane. The author gives a detailed behind-the-scenes history of the competition, noting that Lockheed Martin took a tremendous risk in pursuing its patented, but previously untested, lift-fan technology -- the company would surely have been out of the fighter business for good if it had lost the contract. The author concludes, however, that the most difficult part of the project -- avoiding cost overruns -- still lies ahead, noting, "we are midway through a drama that will help determine what practical results we get for our military investment."

DEFENSE POLICY

9. “A Tale of Two Secretaries.” Cohen, Eliot A. Foreign Affairs 81.3: 33-46, May-June 2002. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/

Donald Rumsfeld has gotten better press as a secretary of war, post-September 11, than he did as a secretary of defense, but the latter is a much tougher job, the author says. Cohen cites bureaucratic norms and pressures that have "an almost overwhelming force," as well as the "exceptional political will" required to implement military transformation that inevitably inflicts pain on powerful interest groups. But he notes there are "important countervailing forces," such as a cadre of energetic young officers who are familiar with information technology and willing to experiment with it. He also discusses the "pathologies of the military procurement system" and the need for "far broader and deeper transformation" than has occurred until now. In addition, he says, the military will need to cultivate two functions it has largely neglected: mobilization and professional education. But in the end, he concludes, the dilemmas of U.S. defense policy today stem from "America's profoundly ambivalent and only semiconscious acceptance of its unique and world-historical role." Cohen believes that the Pentagon must adapt to this fact, the more swiftly the better.

10. “Transforming the Military.” Rumsfeld, Donald H. Foreign Affairs 81.3: 20-32, May-June 2002. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/  

The U.S. defense secretary lays out the necessity for the U.S. military to transform in order to meet 21st century threats. His six transformational goals are: (1) Protect U.S. homeland and overseas bases; (2) Project/sustain power in distant theaters; (3) Deny sanctuary to enemies; (4) Protect U.S. information networks; (5) Fight jointly through linked information technology; and (6) Have unhindered access to space and protect U.S. space assets.

11. “United We Stand: America’s Army; Installation Antiterrorism Force-Protection Planning; The Anthrax Scare: Tips for Leaders.” Military Review 82: 2-23, March-April 2002.

“The war against terrorism is the first war of the 21st century. Even as the United States prosecutes the war, it learns lessons for future wars. Although the principles of war remain unchanged, the ways warfighters apply them continue to evolve. United as one, American forces are preparing to deal with the new national and international security environments.

Retired General Gordon Sullivan and retired Lieutenant General Frederic Brown argue that landpower ensures an enduring presence that is prepared to enforce the national will globally. Lieutenant Colonel Michael Flynn considers installation antiterrorism force protection from an operational perspective. Lieutenant Colonel John Trippon concluded this section with valuable information about anthrax and provides tips for assessing threats based on a unit’s vulnerability and its value as a target.”

FOREIGN AID

12. “Foreign Aid After Sept. 11.” CQ Researcher 12.16: 361-392, April 26, 2002.“As U.S.-led forces continue to wage the Bush administration’s war on terrorism in Afghanistan, calls are mounting for the United States to attack terrorism on another front: by boosting foreign aid…”

13. “Foreign Aid Spending Captures Increased Interest on Hill.” Miles A. Pomper

CQ Weekly 60.25: 1677-1680, June 22, 2002.“Assistance to countries that use the aid to solve political and economic problems is gaining proponents on Capitol Hill, especially in light of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. More spending is expected in fiscal 2003.”

HOMELAND SECURITY

14. “Bush’s Homeland Gambit.” Simendinger, Alexis, Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., and Siobhan Gorman

The National Journal 34.24: 1766-1769, June 15, 2002. “The new Department of Homeland Security would be a mammoth bureaucracy - at least 170,000 federal workers large. But it would still be in search of clear policies to fill out the flow chart, and a workable, valuable domestic intelligence system. Experts suggest that accomplishments will take years.”

15. “Bush’s Swift, Sweeping Plan is Work Order for Congress.” (Special Report) Bettelheim, Adriel & Jill BarshayCQ Weekly 60.23: 1498-1504, June 8, 2002.“President bush has proposed a shakeup of the government’s security structure that is far broader than anyone imagined. The challenge for Congress will be deciding how to reshape what they consider troublesome aspects of the plan without appearing to delay or defy a popular president on national security.”

16. “The Experiment Begins.”

The National Journal 34.24: 1775-1787, June 15, 2002.

“A new Homeland Security Department faces enormous challenges if it is to make the country safer. National Journal writers look at 15 such challenges, from simple enactment to finding enough money and staff.”

INTELLIGENCE

17. “Annals of National Security: Missed Messages.” Hersh, Seymour M.The New Yorker: 40-48, June 3, 2002.

“Neither the F.B.I. nor America’s other intelligence agencies have effectively addressed what may be the most important challenge of September 11th: How does an open society deal with warnings of future terrorism? The Al Qaeda terrorists were there to be seen, but there was no system for seeing them.”

18. “Intelligence Probes: Can Congress Do the Job?” CQ Weekly 60.21: 1366-1375, May 25, 2002.

“Democrats nearly paralyzed by pressures on both sides of intelligence probe. Politics muddies the water around Sept. 11 investigation.”

19. “Secrets of the Service." (Special Report)Chitra Ragavan and Christopher H. Schmitt U.S. News & World Report 132.21: 24-34, May 31, 2002.

“Pressures and problems confront the police agency that protects the president.”

MISSILE DEFENSE

20. “Cruise Control: A Case for Missile Defense.” O'Hanlon, Michael National Interest 67: 89-93, Spring 2002 ^{http://www.nationalinterest.org/ Apart from the hijacking of domestic flights, defending against cruise missiles has probably become the most challenging air defense problem for the United States in this era, the author says. In this article, he analyses the technical requirements and costs of a cruise missile defense, which he notes "is admittedly a very difficult proposition, given the multiplicity of possible launch points, approach trajectories and targets." O'Hanlon says that a system of radars, perhaps held up by aerostat balloons, together with the existing network of U.S.-based fighter aircraft and a new series of surface-to-air missile sites "could provide at least some coverage of all of the nation's borders." Such a system, he says, could probably cost $10 billion to $20 billion to deploy and roughly as much to operate over a 20-year period. He argues that the United States "should seriously consider the desirability and feasibility of a national defense against cruise missiles armed with chemical, biological or radiological payloads."}

21. “Missile Defenses: Now What? Lindsay, James M.; O'Hanlon, Michael E.; Et Al. Washington Quarterly 25.3: 161-206, Summer 2002. http://www.twq.com/

A series of three articles explores the future of the U.S. missile defense program and what direction it may take. In "Missile Defense after the ABM Treaty," Lindsay and O'Hanlon discuss what system Washington is likely to deploy, examine the technological and political challenges ahead, and outline three principles that they believe should guide U.S. policy on the issue in future years. Kevin McLaughlin, in "Would Space-Based Defenses Improve Security," looks at the strategic and operational benefits that space-based missile defense components could provide, the effect of such a system on strategic stability and the international community, and whether technology has progressed to a stage that would make space-based missile defenses possible. And in "Toward Missile Defenses from the Sea," Hans Binnendijk and George Stewart say that some conceivable designs for a sea-based missile defense system would enhance U.S. prospects for defeating a rogue state's missile attack, but others could undermine the nation's strategic stability with Russian and China. The best system from both a technical and strategic perspective, they argue, would include a small number of sea-based radars and boost-phase interceptors.

22. “Postol vs. The Pentagon.”

Taubes, Gary Technology Review 105.3: 52-59, April2002.

http://www.techreview.com/articles/taubes10402.asp

The author examines the crusade by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor of science, technology and national security policy Theodore Postol against the space-based missile defense program. Postol raised the ire of the Defense Department and the Missile Defense Agency because he says the government is on the verge of deploying an astronomically expensive system that not only won't work but also will make the world less secure. Taubes describes Postol, who has a background in nuclear engineering, as "a serious analyst of military defense systems" with impeccable credentials. The author quotes former assistant secretary of defense Philip Coyle, director of defense operational test and evaluation during the Clinton administration, as saying Postol's technical analysis of missile defense is "the best work that anybody has done outside the bowels of the Pentagon." Postol has questioned the objectivity of space-based missile defense testing, noting that certain algorithms would only work reliably in the future if the exact image of all decoys and countermeasures were known in advance. Taubes writes: "a rogue nation or terrorist group would be unlikely to disclose the shape, number and characteristics of its decoys before launching a nuclear missile attack."

23. “Rhetoric or Reality? Missile Defense Under Bush." Coyle, Phillip Arms Control Today 32.4: 3-9, May 2002.

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_05/coylemay02.asp

The former assistant secretary of defense and director of operational test and evaluation from 1994 to 2001 says that even though the Bush administration has sought to distinguish its layered missile defense plans from the previous administration they are "in effect nothing more than the Clinton system." Against his analysis of the various components of theater and national missile defense, he says the pace of successful testing "will be one of the primary determinants of how quickly the United States can field a national missile defense." One must have realistic expectations about what missile defense technology can deliver, Coyle says, adding, "policymakers should be careful that U.S. foreign and security goals and policies are not dependent on something that cannot work now and probably will not work effectively for the foreseeable future." A single weapon system cannot substitute for what he calls "the sound conduct of foreign policy."

24. “Why Missile Defence Won't Work.” Postol, Theodore, A.Technology Review 105.3: 42-51, April 2002.

http://www.techreview.com/articles/postol0402.asp

This Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor of science, technology and national security policy says the results of space-based missile defense experiments have been misrepresented and distorted by Missile Defense Agency management and private contractors. Postol, a thorn in the Pentagon's side for many years, says their deliberate collective actions "have hidden the systems vulnerabilities from the White House, Congress and the American citizens whom the missile defense program was supposed to protect." Instead, he advocates, a more difficult-to-counter boost-phase missile defense targeting intercontinental ballistic missiles in their beginning minutes of flight while they are still accelerating to top speed. Locating interceptors geographically within a few hundred kilometers of rogue states would have a devastating effect against small emerging missile states, he contends, but would be mostly useless against Russia and China. Postol suggests using silos in Turkey to effectively defend against Iraqi missile launches, positioning ships or converted Trident submarines as platforms to knock out launched North Korean missiles, and using sites in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan or in the Caspian Sea to defend against a possible launch by Iran. The technology required to implement this strategy, the analyst concludes, "is far less demanding than that needed for mid-flight intercepts in space."

 

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

25. “Nuclear Notebook.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: 70-75, May-June 2002

After one year in office, in January 2002 the Bush administration completed the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Although classified, the review was leaked in early March. It outlines the Pentagon’s nuclear strategy, force levels, and infrastructure for the next 10 years and beyond. It also endorses revisions in strategy to allow the Pentagon to generate new nuclear attack plans that could be approved quickly in a crisis.

26. “Nuclear Terrorism and Warhead Control in Russia.” Collina, Tom Z.; Wolfsthal, Jon B. Arms Control Today 32.3: 15-19, April 2002. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_04/colwolfapril02.asp Wolfsthal, an associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Non-Proliferation Project and Collina, director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' Global Security program, believe that if the U.S. were to give up its requirement to maintain a large nuclear reserve it "would allow Russia to do the same and free both sides to place a high priority on securely storing and eliminating Russian nuclear warheads and fissile material." They say the two nations should cooperate to implement a process to track retired warheads and fissile material "from cradle to grave, while continuing to improve the immediate security situation." The idea would be to put warheads, as they are removed from missiles and bombers, directly into containers to be tagged with unique seals -- all under watch of U.S. and Russian monitors. Presidents Bush and Putin should commit "to a binding agreement to eliminate warheads removed from deployment under an effective 'chain of custody' from deployment to disposal," they say. The authors conclude: "When one compares the probability of nuclear warhead and material theft in Russia to the probability that the United States will need to double the size of its arsenal in the future, the choice is easy."

PEACEKEEPING

27. “Locating Accountability: The Media and Peacekeeping.” Moeller, Susan D. Journal of International Affairs 55.2: 369-390, Spring 2002.

Is U.S. involvement in U.N. peacekeeping efforts influenced by media coverage? To answer this question, author Susan Moeller examines the changing definition of "peacekeeping" within the U.N. and she surveys the media coverage of U.S./U.N. peacekeeping efforts in several countries, including, Rwanda, Bosnia and Somalia. On the one hand, few countries are willing to insert their troops into brutal, regional conflicts. On the other hand, U.N. leaders are under tremendous pressure to intervene when the media is flooded with images of atrocities and human suffering. The author contends that real-time reporting of crises can significantly diminish the time period required by decision-makers to assess the necessity of peacekeeping missions. However, the press ultimately does not have the persuasive power to push decision-makers into deploying U.S. peacekeepers to areas where they would not be deployed otherwise.

28. “Outsourcing War: Mercenaries and the Privatization of Peacekeeping.” Steven Brayton Journal of International Affairs 55.2: 303-329, Spring 2002. “ If other nations, individually or collectively, are not willing to contribute to multilateral peacekeeping or peacemaking forces, why should a state not have the right to hire a force able to keep order?”

U.S. ARMY

29. “Army’s Three-Part Plan Causes Budget, Hill Disharmony.” Pat Towell CQ Weekly 60.17: 1102-1106, April 27, 2002.

“In 1999, Congress embraced the Army’s three-part modernization plan as a way to meet the need for a faster, lighter, more flexible force. Now, amid fears of budget pressures, some lawmakers have latched to a single phase.”

U.S. - INDIA RELATIONS 30. “Emerging India.” CQ Researcher 12.15: 329-360, April 19, 2002.

“With more than a billion people, India is the world’s second-most-populous country and its largest democracy. Sweeping economic reforms and the development of high-tech industries in recent years have given the nation new optimism for the future. But poverty, food shortages and violence between Hindus and Muslims continue to plague India, and some observers even fear the country’s hallowed tradition of pluralism and secular government is at risk…”

U.S. - MIDDLE EAST

31. “Iraq’s Arsenal of Terror.” Rose, David Vanity Fair 501: 120-131, May 2002. The author has interviewed, through the auspices of the Iraqi National Congress, an Iraqi defector who claims to have been highly placed in Iraq's efforts to reconstitute its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and missile delivery systems. The defector says Iraq is now close to having a ballistic missile that can hit regional capitals, including U.S. NATO ally Ankara. He describes how Iraq has circumvented U.N. sanctions through front companies to import needed products and materials for its WMD program.

32. “The Last Negotiation.” Agha, Hussein; Malley, Robert Foreign Affairs 81.3: 10-18, May-June 2002. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/ Rejecting the idea that only incremental steps can resolve the Middle East crisis, the authors say that "now is precisely the time for a U.S.-led international coalition to put forward an end-of-conflict deal." They review the problems of earlier peace negotiations, asserting that history demonstrates that the incremental method has failed. A comprehensive deal can be reached that protects both sides' core interests without breaching either party's "redlines," or non-negotiable demands, they say. And a U.S.-led international force would help to ensure its implementation.

33. “The Last of the Patriarchs.” Benn, Aluf Foreign Affairs 81.3: 64-78, May-June 2002. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/ Benn focuses on the predicament faced by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon both in his homeland and abroad, especially with the United States. Elected as the conservative alternative to Ehud Barak, Sharon is known as "the Bulldozer" and the ultimate hardliner when it comes to relations with the Palestinian Authority and Yasser Arafat. Still, he has been criticized by both ends of the political spectrum in Israel -- former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the right, and a coalition on the left, who are working for a peaceful compromise to the war with Palestine. Sharon's ability to remain rather popular at home is due in large part to the significant support that he has received from the Bush Administration in the United States. Recently, however, the White House has been reluctant to endorse Prime Minister Sharon's retaliatory actions. Sharon's inability to come up with a lasting peace plan with Arafat has led to the diminishing of domestic and international support. The author believes that it is imperative that Sharon come up with a plan, and fast; otherwise, he risks losing crucial support from the U.S. and gambles with his own political future, as he is up for reelection in 2003. The author believes that Sharon likely has a plan in the works, but it is one that will undoubtedly displease many.

34. “Tales of the Tyrant.” Bowden, Mark Atlantic Monthly 289.5: 35-53, May 2002. http://www.theatlantic.com/

Through interviews with expatriates and refugees, Bowden offers an account of the daily life of Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein, tracing his rise through the ranks, and how he wields and retains power. While Saddam blames the U.S. and U.N. sanctions for the poverty, backwardness, and suffering in his country, most Iraqis understand that he is actually the cause of it all. The author predicts that Saddam will ultimately fail, not only because his legendary cruelty has created fear and hatred, but also because he has lost touch with reality.

MISCELLANEOUS

35. “The Assassins.” Jon Lee Anderson The New Yorker: 72-81, June 10, 2002.

“Who was involved in the murder of Ahmed Shah Massoud?”

36. “International Law and the Military Uses of Space.”

Graham, Thomas Disarmament Diplomacy 63, March-April 2002

http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd63/63op1.htm

Graham, the ambassador and former Special Representative for Arms Control, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament during the Clinton administration, believes that the international community of space-faring nations will ultimately embrace the need for restraint in outer space and should seek a way to develop a legal regime to preserve this frontier "as a non-militarized, or at least non-weaponized, realm." A crucial reason for seeking such a non-weaponized space environment, the president of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security (LAWS) says, is the need to protect satellites and other space assets needed to insure effective verification of arms control accords such as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START) and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Writing for the electronic publication of the British-based Acronym Institute, the author says ensuring non-interference with National Technical Means (NMT) of verification is imperative for peace and security in the 21st century because of its central role "in preserving confidence in the nuclear arms control and non-proliferation regime."

37. “Maneuver Warfare: Can Modern Military Strategy Lead You to Victory?”

Clemons, Eric K. & Jason A. Santamaria

Harvard Business Review

80.4: 57-65, April 2002.

Military strategy, like business strategy, has had to evolve in response to the changing environment. This has led to the growing focus on an approach to armed conflict called maneuver warfare. Although designed for the battlefield, maneuver warfare offers a novel and useful way to think about business strategy. Developed to address conditions that in many ways mirror those faced by modern business executives, the authors believe the concept of maneuver warfare is directly relevant to business strategy. The concept behind maneuver warfare is represented in the United States Marine Corps doctrinal manual, 'Warfighting.' According to 'Warfighting,' four human and environmental factors shape military conflict: friction, uncertainty, fluidity, and disorder--all of which are familiar to most business executives. Because these four factors can rarely be controlled, successful commanders use them to their own advantage--a notion at the core of maneuver warfare. Maneuver warfare also has seven guiding concepts: targeting critical vulnerabilities, boldness, surprise, focus, decentralized decision making, rapid tempo, and combined arms. Taken as a whole, these seven concepts provide a useful framework for thinking about business strategy. Examples of how each concept has been successfully executed in both military and business contexts are provided as well.

38. “Perspectives on War: Different Cultures, Different Coverage.”

Columbia Journalism Review : 40-51, March-April 2002.

“How you saw the war in Afghanistan depended in part on which window you were looking through … CJR examines some of the differences in perspective on that conflict and other events in the Middle East. Neil Hickey compares television coverage in the West with that of Al Jazeera, the twenty-four-hour Qatar-based network. Rick Zednik gets an inside look at Al Jazeera, and George Kennedy compares war coverage in U.S. newspapers with those of America’s closest ally, Great Britain - and finds a somewhat different story.”

39. “Power and Weakness.”

Robert Kagan

Policy Review

, June-July 2002, 16 p.

“Kagan argues that Europe's preference for diplomatic over military solutions and for multilateralism over unilateralism is not an intrinsic part of the European character, but instead stems from two things: Europe's current military weakness and the continent's success in using diplomatic and commercial means to rein in its national rivalries and form a peaceful European Union.”

 

40. “Whither the Role of Private Foundations in Support of International Security Policy?”

Wallerstein, Mitchel B.

Nonproliferation Review

9.1: 83-91, Spring 2002.

The author outlines how think tanks have influenced U.S. foreign policy, a legacy that began at the height of the Cold War. Wallerstein notes that the role of think tanks has changed from the Cold War era, when the objective was to prevent "mutual assured destruction"; now they devote their efforts to promoting world political and economic stability, while keeping U.S. interests in mind. These organizations conduct extensive research and policy analysis, though some of their efforts achieve minimal, or at least disputable, results. Charting the future of think tanks is important, since there is a new generation of scholars entering the field. The diverse nature of the subjects studied by these organizations provides a broad analysis of the needs and concerns of our society, strengthening our foreign policy.

 

  DIPLOMACY 2003

¨   AMERICA'S ROLE IN NATION-BUILDING: FROM GERMANY TO IRAQ.

James Dobbins, John G. McGinn, Keith Crane, Seth G. Jones, Rollie Lal, Andrew Rathmell, Rachel Swanger, and Anga Timilsina.

RAND.  July 28, 2003.http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1753

[Table of Contents page, sections in pdf format] Note:  If printed in its entirety, the full publication is 266 pages.

The book claims that the post­World War II occupations of Germany and Japan set standards for successful post-conflict nation-building that have never again been matched.  In recent years the United States has a mixed record of success in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. Now Iraq looms as the greatest nation-building challenge since 1945.

        Despite a more supportive international environment, the costs and risks of nation-building have remained high, and the U.S. has had a limited commitment to such endeavors, according to the authors.  America withdrew from Somalia at the first serious resistance, avoided intervention in Rwanda, and resisted European efforts to intervene in the Balkans during four years of bloody civil war before finally intervening in Bosnia and Kosovo.  While it is perhaps too early to pass final judgment on the missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, it would be difficult thus far to claim they offer an improvement over their most recent predecessors, the authors state.

        What lessons can be learned from past endeavors that can be applied to Iraq, an effort comparable in scale to the earlier American occupations of Germany and Japan?  Although each of the seven cases analyzed in this volume offers unique elements, the authors find areas where comparisons might be useful.  In particular, they quantify and compare measures of nation-building input (such as troops, time, and economic assistance) and output (including democratic elections and increases in per capita GDP).

¨   THE MAKING OF THE LIMITED TEST BAN TREATY, 1958-1963.

William Burr and Hector L. Montford, editors.George Washington University.  National Security Archive.  Web-posted August 8, 2003.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB94/index2.htm [html format, 25 printed pages]

Starting in 1958, the U.S., British, and Soviet governments attempted to negotiate a comprehensive test ban treaty, but protracted arguments over procedures to verify the ban combined with military and ideological pressures for renewed testing (similar to those in Washington today) stymied the effort.  Forty years ago this week, London, Moscow, and Washington settled for a limited treaty that permitted underground nuclear testing but banned tests in the atmosphere, underwater, and in outer-space.  The National Security Archive commemorates the Limited Test Ban Treaty anniversary with an electronic briefing book of 65 declassified U.S. government documents on the negotiation of the treaty and its background.

        The National Cancer Institute-Centers for Disease Control study correlating atmospheric testing and U.S. cancer deaths suggests that the LTBT can be seen as a major global public health success in so far as it halted atmospheric nuclear testing by the superpowers.  President George H.W. Bush ordered a moratorium on all U.S. nuclear tests starting in 1992; and the U.S. together with Russia, China, France, and Britain signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996.  But neither China nor the U.S. has ratified the CTBT to date.  Whether pressures for "mini-nukes" will overturn the U.S. nuclear test moratorium remains to be seen.

¨   POWER AND COOPERATION: AN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY FOR THE AGE OF GLOBAL POLITICS.

Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay.Brookings Institution.  Web-posted August 14, 2003.

http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/daalder/20030814.pdf

For more than three centuries, the dynamic of world politics was determined by the interplay among states, especially the great powers.  Today, world politics is shaped by two unprecedented phenomena that are in some tension with each other.  One is the sheer predominance of the United States.  Today, as never before, what matters most in international politics is how—and whether—Washington acts on any given issue.  The other is globalization, which has unleashed economic, political, and social forces that are beyond the capacity of any one country, including the United States, to control.

        American leaders and the American people are now grappling with the double-edged sword that is the age of global politics: how to maximize its rewards while minimizing its dangers.  In this debate, there is little disagreement over whether the United States should be engaged in world affairs.  Both America's extensive global ties and its vulnerability to outside forces make disengagement and isolationism impossible. Nor is there much disagreement on the purpose of American engagement. America's interests are best served by a continually expanding liberal international order, one in which increasing numbers of people share the benefits of open markets and democratic governments.

¨   THE WORLD FACTBOOK 2003 AND THE FACTBOOK ON INTELLIGENCE.

United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).  Web-posted August 12, 2003.

 Please read instructions at the web page cited in the first url below.http://www.odci.gov/cia/download.html

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

[Table of Contents page]

http://www2.cia.gov/factbook2003.zip [Single .Zip file for high-bandwidth users]

http://www2.cia.gov/factbooka2003.zip [Zip file with all materials except maps]

http://www2.cia.gov/factbookb2003.zip [Zip file with 15 pdf-format maps]

In addition to the updated information, The World Factbook features seven new entries.  In the People category, an entry has been added for Median age.  In the Economy category, entries have been added for “Oil - production”, “Oil - consumption”, “Oil - exports”, “Oil - imports”, “Oil - proved reserves”, and “Natural gas - proved reserves”.  Revision of some individual country maps, first introduced in the 2001 edition, is continued in this edition.  The revised maps include elevation extremes and a partial geographic grid.  Several regional maps have also been updated to reflect boundary changes and place name spelling changes.

¨ FOREIGN AID: AN INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW OF U.S. PROGRAMS AND POLICY.

Curt Tarnoff and Larry Nowels.

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service (CRS).  Updated April 15, 2004.

http://www.fas.org/man/crs/98-916.pdf

[pdf format, 35 pages]

 

This report provides an overview of the U.S. foreign aid program, by addressing a number of the more frequently asked questions regarding the subject.

There are five major categories of foreign assistance: bilateral development aid, economic assistance supporting U.S. political and security goals, humanitarian aid, multilateral economic contributions, and military aid.  Due largely to the recent implementation of two new foreign aid initiatives — the Millennium Challenge

Corporation and the Global AIDS Initiative — bilateral development assistance has become the largest category of U.S. aid.

In 2004, the United States is providing some form of foreign assistance to about 150 countries.  Israel and Egypt continue, as they have since the late 1970s, as the largest recipients, although Iraq, receiving over $20 billion for reconstruction activities since mid-2003, is the biggest recipient in FY2004.  The importance of Latin America counter-narcotics efforts is also evident, with Bolivia, Peru, and more recently, Colombia, among the top U.S. aid recipients.  The impact of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent use of foreign aid to support the war on terrorism is clearly seen in the country-aid allocations for FY2004.  Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan, and Indonesia are key partners in the war on terrorism.

By nearly all measures, the amount of foreign aid provided by the United States declined for several decades but has grown in the past few years. After hitting an all-time low in the mid1990s, total foreign assistance (but excluding Iraq reconstruction) for FY2003/2004, in real terms, has been larger than any two-year period since the mid-1980s.  The 0.2% of U.S. gross national product represented by foreign aid obligations the past two years, however, is among the smallest amounts in the last half-century.  The United States is the largest international economic aid donor in dollar terms but is the smallest contributor among the major donor governments when calculated as a percent of gross national income.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) manages the bulk of bilateral economic assistance; the Treasury Department handles most multilateral aid; and the Department of Defense (DOD) and the State Department administer military and other security-related programs.  The Millennium Challenge Corporation is a new foreign aid agency created in 2004.  The House International Relations and Senate Foreign Relations Committees have primary congressional responsibility for authorizing foreign aid programs while the House and Senate Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittees manage bills appropriating most foreign assistance funds.

 

 

Human Rights

 

¨ AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL REPORT 2004.

Amnesty International (AI).  May 26, 2004.

http://www.amnesty.org/report2004

[English-language gateway page, sections in various formats, files of various sizes]

http://web.amnesty.org/report2004/index-fra

[French-language gateway page]

 

The Amnesty International Report 2004 covers the human rights situation in 155 countries during 2003. Launching the Report, the organization said that violence by armed groups and increasing violations by governments have combined to produce the most sustained attack on human rights and international humanitarian law in 50 years.

The core of the report is made up of entries on individual countries and territories, grouped alphabetically by nation.  There is also a regional overview that identifies the main human rights trends within the region.   The entry for each individual country begins with basic background information, followed by descriptions of what AI views to be the most important human rights issues for that country. 

 

¨ SUPPORTING HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY:  THE U.S. RECORD 2003-2004.

United States Department of State.  Web-posted May 17, 2004, 268 p.

http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/shrd/2003

[Table of Contents page, sections in pdf and html format, various pagings]

This report is submitted to the Congress by the U.S. Department of State in compliance with Section 665 of P.L. 107-228, the Fiscal Year 2003 Foreign Relations Authorization Act, which was signed into law on September 30, 2002, requiring the Department to report on actions taken by the U.S. Government to encourage respect for human rights.  Unlike the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, issued annually by the State Department and covering 196 countries, this new report highlights U.S. efforts to promote human rights and democracy in the 101 countries and entities with the worst human rights records, taking care to include those countries of concern for “extrajudicial killings, torture and other serious violations of human rights.” 

During the rollout of this report, Richard L. Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State remarked:  “We have seen some of those ideals and institutions rocked in recent weeks by the shocking revelations of American human rights violations in Iraq.  When President Bush expressed his deep disgust and regret, it wasn’t just his personal reaction as a man of principle.  It was also his reaction as the head of state of a country that holds itself to a higher standard, both at home and in our conduct in the world.  We will indeed hold all who bear any responsibility for these shameful episodes fully accountable.  But it is simply not enough to punish those who fall short of our high standards.  We must do more than that.  We must create a constructive legacy, one that promotes and protects human rights and democracy around the world.  And you will see in this document the proof that we are doing just that.”