Bibliographie du futur

BIBLIOGRAPHIE DU FUTUR

"Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read."

Groucho Marx

Sources de Geoscopie Sources Internet <Sources Biblio > Librairie

0-GENERALITES-SOURCES

Sur la réflexion prospective, on pourra s'initier avec:
- - les ouvrages de Michel Godet, par exemple "l'Avenir autrement"( Armand Colin 1991) et "De l'anticipation à l'action: manuel de prospective et de stratégie"( Dunod 1991).
- Un best-seller d'un praticien de la SHELL: "The Art of the Long view" par Peter Schwartz, Président de Global Business Network DoubleDay 1996
- - les revues "Futuribles"( Paris), "Futures" ( Londres).
- -les best-sellers prospectifs de John Naisbitt, Faith Popcorn, Richard Carlson etc...
- "OCTAVE: Bibliographie des études prospectives en Europe Occidentale (1993-1995)" Futuribles International , Paris, 275p.,1997)
- Encyclopedia of World problems and potential Saur Verlag, Munich, 1991
- FUTURESCO future database of UNESCO
- Future Studies - Highly Recommended Books Page Future Studies, futurist, futurology
- Future Studies 1999 catalog; Greenwood Publishing Grouphttp://www.greenwood.com/futurestud/
- "60 KEY WORKS - A BEGINNER'S GUIDE TO THE FUTURES LITERATURE", de Kjell Dahle
- Adamantine Press : various books
- BURROWS MAYNE NEWBURY: Into the 21 th Century: a handbook for the sustainable future Adamantine Press 1991
- Future Studies - Highly Recommended Books Page Future Studies, futurist, futurology
- Future Studies 1999 catalog; Greenwood Publishing Grouphttp://www.greenwood.com/futurestud/
- "60 KEY WORKS - A BEGINNER'S GUIDE TO THE FUTURES LITERATURE", de Kjell Dahle
- Future Studies A leading publisher
- Studytoc The World Future Society is updating its classic text, The Study of the Future.
Voir dans le répertoire : Le FUTUR DANS GEOSCOPIE: les analyses d'ouvrages de

F.Hatem,Prospective-pratiques et méthodes

Ruth Sheps: Sciences de la prévision

UNESCO: Les clés du XXI° siècle
Le progrès

1- CHRONIQUE

HISTOIRE:
- Histoire du futur
  - Herman KAHN "The Year 2000" , New-York, 1968.
  - George ORWELL"1984" , London, 1949.
  - The World in 2030 A.D. By the Earl of Birkenhead, London, 1930.
  - Ivan H. BLOCH:"The Future of War" , Boston, 1903.
  - Minois G. "Histoire de l'avenir: des Prophètes à la prospective" Fayard 1996
  - Halte à la croissance ? Rapport du Club de Rome, Paris, 1972.
  - Mattelart: Histoire des utopies planétaires La Découverte
  - Guy Thuillier "L'histoire en 2050" Comité pour l'histoire économique et financière de la France
ACTUALITE
- Les synthèses du temps présent: (peuvent faciliter la prospective)
  - En France, plusieurs publications annuelles de qualité: RAMSES, l'Année Internationale, l'Etat du monde; et des revues ou hebdomadaires comme "le Monde diplomatique", "Projet", " Courrier International", "Politique Etrangère", "Problèmes économiques" etc...
  - A l'étranger, les revues et synthèses de "The Economist", Financial Times, Business Week.
  - Enfin et surtout l'énorme documentation de la Banque Mondiale et du Fonds Monétaire International, de l'OCDE, de la Communauté Européenne.

2- GEOGRAPHIE

GEOGRAPHIE
TOUS PAYS:
- Pelt JM: "La Terre en héritage" Fayard 2000
PAYS BAS
- Dutch Central Planning Bureau. Scanning the Future. The Hague SDU Publishers, 1992.
RUSSIE
- Yergin, Daniel, and Thane Gustafson. Russia 2010 and What It Means for the World. New York: Random House, 1993. Armstrong, Neil,
AFRIQUE
- Esterhuyse, Willie. "Scenarios for South Africa-Instability and Violence or Negotiated Transition?" Long Range Planning 25, (1992): 21-26.
- Kahane, Adam."The Mont Fleur Scenarios." WeeklyMail and The Guardian Weekly (Bellville, South Africa), 1992.
TOURISME

3-INSTITUTIONS-DROIT

INSTITUTIONS
DROIT
- Salas D. "Le Tiers pouvoir: vers une autre justice" Hachette 2000
POLITIQUE
- Le risque politique
  - Bonnett, Thomas W., and Robert L. Olson. Scenarios of State Govemment in the Year 2010. Washington, D.C.: Council of Governors'Policy Advisors, 1993.
  - Coplin, William D., and Michael O'Leary. "1992-97 World Political Risk Forecast. " Planning Review 20, no. 2 (1992): 24-3 1.
  - Rosell, Steven A., et al. Changing Maps: Governing in a World of Rapid Change. The Second Report of the Project in an Information Society. Ottawa: Carleton University Press, 1995
  - Alain Touraine, Qu'est-ce que la démocratie ?, LGF, 1997.
  - Etchegoyen A. "Le temps des responsables" Pocket 1997

4- INTERNATIONAL

GENERAL
ORGANISATION
- De la confédération à la fédération - réflexion sur la finalité de l'intégration européenne. Discours de Joschka FISCHER à l'Université Humboldt, le 12 mai 2000", (extraits reproduits dans "Le Monde ", 14-15 mai 2000).
- Après l'État-nation - une nouvelle constellation. Jürgen HABERMAS, Paris, 2000.
- The World in 2020: Towards a New Golden Age. Hamish Mc RAE, OECD, 1997.
- Anticipation the Future - Twenty Millennia of Human Progress. Barry BUZAN and Gerald SEGAL, London, 1997.
- Schwartz, Peter. "The New World Disorder. " Wired: Scenarios Special Edition, October 1995. 164-65,173-7
- Sunter, Clem. The New Century, Quest for the High Boad. Cape Town: Ituman & Rousseau Tafelberg, 1992. 65,131
- J.Hugues International Futures
- Les enjeux du XXIe siècle 2000 Eric Hobsbawm (entretien avec Antonio Polito) Editions Complexe, Collection "Questions à l'histoire", mars 2000 Bruxelles les grandes tendances du prochain siècle à partir de la connaissance du passé
- La guerre au XXIe siècle Laurent Murawiec 1999
SECURITE-DEFENSE
- Boroush, Mark A., and Charles W. Thomas. "Alternative Scenarios for the Defense Industry after 1995. " Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992): 24-29.
- Cohen, Elliott A., and John Gooch. Militariy Misfortunes. New York: Free Press, 1990.
- Martin van Creveld, La transformation de la guerre. 1998 ("On Future War", 1991)
- Boroush, Mark A., and Charles W. Thomas. "Alternative Scenarios for the
EUROPE
AMERIQUE

5- ECONOMIE

Peter Heller "Who will pay?Coping with aging societies, climate changes and other long term fiscal challenges " International Monetary Fund Nov.2003 248 pages

6- SECTEURS ET ENTREPRISES

ENERGIE
- Benjamin Dessus, Énergie. Un défi planétaire, Paris, Belin, 1999;
- - Énergie 2010-2020, Rapport final de l'Atelier « Les défis du long terme », Commissariat général au Plan, 1997.
- Scenarios for Energy: Sustainable World vs. Global Mercantilism." Long Range Planning 25, no. 4 (1992): 38-46.
- Kleiner, Art. "The End of the Official Future: Why Pacifîc Gas and Electric Isn't Building Any More Nuclear Power Plants." Garbage, March/April 1992
- Schipper, Lee, and Stephen Meyers. "Using Scenarios to Explore Future Energy Demand in Industrialized Countries." Energy Policy 21, no. 3 (March 1993): 264-275.
- Stokke, P. R., W. K. Ralston, T. A. Boyce, and I. H. Wilson. "Scenario Planning for Norwegian Oil and Gas." Long Range Planning 23, no. 2 (1990): 17-26.
ALIMENTATION
- Benkimoun P. "La peur aux ventres: démocratie et sécurité alimentaire" Textuel 2000
BIOLOGIE
- Rifkin J. "Le siècle biotech: le commerce des gènes dans le meilleur des mondes" Pocket 2000
- M.Serres: "Hominescence" Le Pommier 2001 (avènement du génie génétique)
- Kupiec JJ et Sonigo P. "Ni Dieu, ni gène: pour une autre théorie de l'hérédité"

7- SOCIETE

EDUCATION
- Ogilvy, James. "Education and Community: Four Scenarios for the Future of Public Education." The Deeper News (Emeryville, Calif.: Global Business Network) 6, no. 1 (1995).
- Three Scenarios for Higher Education." The Deeper News (Emeryville, Calif.: Global Business Network) 3, no. 1 (1992);
- Mason, David H., and James Herman. "Mapping the Future of Computing and Communications." UniForum Daily, january 23, 1992
MODES DE VIE

·Sue R. "Vivre en l'an 2000" Albin Michel 1985

8- OPINIONS-IDEES

SAVOIRS

Concepts
- Barnett, Steve. "Futures, Probable and Plausible." Anthropology Newsletter, October 1994.
- Churchman, C. West. The Design of Inquiring Systems. New York:Basic Books, 1971. (1992):
- de Geus, Arie. "Planning as Learning." Harvard Business Review 66, no. 2 (1988): 70-74.
- Douglas, Mary. How Institutions Think. Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, 1986.
- Forrester, Jay Wright. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1961.
- Galer, Graham, and Kees van der Heijden. "How Planners Create 10-17, Organisational Learning." Marketing Intelligence and Planning Wilkinson,10, no. 6 (1992): 5-12.
- Griffin, Emilie, ed. "Decisionmaking" [interview with Napier Collyns]. In The Reflective Executive, 117-124. New York: Crossroads,1993.
- Ingvar, David H. "Memories of the Future: An Essay on the Temporal Organisation of Conscious Awareness." Human Neurobiology 4, no. 3 (1985): 12 7-136.
- Jungermann, Helmut, and M. Thuring. "The Use of Mental Models for Generating Scenarios." In Judgment Forecasting, edited by George Wright and Peter Ayton. Chichester: Wiley, 1987.
- Kolb, David A. Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Leaming and Development. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1984.
- Michael, Don. On Learning to Plan and Planning to Leam. New York: Jossey-Bass, 1973.
- Mintzberg, Henry. "That's Not Turbulence, Chicken Little, That's Really Opportunity." Planning Review 22, no. 6 (1994): 7-9.
- van der Heijden, Kees. "Probablistic Planning and Scenario Planning." In Subjective Probability, edited by George Wright and Peter Ayton. Chichester and New York: Wiley, 1994. no. 3 (19
- Vickers, Geoffrey, Sir. Human Systems Are Different. London and New York: Harper & Row, 1983.
Methodologie et Pratique
- Leemhuis, J. P. "Using Scenarios to Develop Strategies." Long Range Planning 18, no. 2 (1985): 30-37.
- Mason, David H. "Scenario-based Planning: Decision Model for the Learning Organization." Planning Review 22, no. 2 (1994): 6-11.
- Ogilvy, James. "Future Studies and the Human Sciences: The Case for Normative Scenarios. " Futures Research Quarterly 8, no. 2
- Schoemaker, Paul, and Kees van der Heijden. "Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell." Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992): 41-46.
- Schwartz, Peter. "Composing a Plot for Your Scenario." Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992) 4-8, 46.
- Simpson, Daniel G. "Key Lessons for Adopting Scenario Planning in Diversified Companies." Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992):
- Wilkinson, Lawrence. "How to Build Scenarios: Planning for'Long Fuse, Big Bang' Problems in an Era of Uncertainty." Wired:Scenarios Special Edition, October 1995.
- Wack, Pierre "Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Reperceiving." Harvard Business School working paper. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard College, 1984.
- Wack, Pierre " Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids." Harvard Business Review Apple Computer 63, no. 6 (1985): 139-150.
- Wack, Pierre "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead." Harvard Business Review 63, no. 5 (1985): 72-79.
Sciences et techniques:

Lecourt D. "L'avenir du progrés" Textuel 1997

9- PERSPECTIVES

HYPOTHESES
- UNESCO: Les clés du XXI° siècle
TENDANCES-SCENARIOS
- Gaudin T. "2100: récit du prochain siècle" Payot 1990
- ·Gros F. "Prospectives 2005: explorations de l'avenir" Economica 1987
- Bibliographie de la Mondialisation
  
  Bibliography of Globalisation
RISQUES
- Principe de précaution
- Bourg D. et Schlegel JL: "Parer aux risques de demain: le pricipe de précaution" Seuil 2001, gestion des avancées technologiques, développement durable
- Kourisky et Vinel : "Le principe de précaution" O.Jacob 2000
- Lepage C. et Guéry F. "La politique de précaution" PUF 2001
- Farouki N. "Les progrès de la peur" Le Pommier 2001
- D.Lecourt: "L'avenir du progrès" Textuel 1997

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