![Keep Us Strong](../../../static/gfx/ja-cg.jpg)
![WikiLeaks logo](../../../static/gfx/WL_Hour_Glass_small.png)
Currently released so far... 3954 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
AF
AM
AE
AG
AR
ASEC
AS
AU
AORC
AJ
AMGT
AGMT
AFIN
APER
ABUD
ATRN
AEMR
ACOA
AEC
AO
AX
AMED
ADCO
AODE
AFFAIRS
AC
AL
ASIG
ABLD
AA
AFU
ASUP
AROC
ATFN
CH
CE
CA
CASC
CU
CLINTON
CO
CI
CVIS
CDG
CIA
CACM
CDB
CS
CBW
CD
CV
CMGT
CJAN
CG
CF
CN
CAN
COUNTER
CIS
CM
CONDOLEEZZA
COE
CR
CY
CTM
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CPAS
CWC
CT
CKGR
CB
CACS
COM
CJUS
CARSON
COUNTERTERRORISM
EUN
EG
EAID
ENRG
ETTC
EFIN
ECON
ETRD
EPET
EINV
EMIN
ECIP
ECPS
EINDETRD
EAGR
EU
EN
EZ
ELAB
ER
ET
ES
EUC
EI
EAIR
EIND
EWWT
ELTN
EREL
ECIN
EFIS
EINT
EC
ENVR
ECA
EXTERNAL
EINVETC
ENIV
EINN
ENGR
EUR
ESA
ENERG
EK
ELECTIONS
ECUN
EINVEFIN
IR
IS
IZ
INRB
IAEA
IN
IT
ID
IO
IV
ICTY
IQ
ICAO
INTERPOL
IPR
IRAJ
INRA
INRO
IC
IIP
ITPHUM
IWC
ISRAELI
IRAQI
ICRC
IMO
IF
ILC
IEFIN
INTELSAT
IL
IA
IBRD
IMF
ITALY
ITALIAN
KCOR
KDEM
KNNP
KU
KWBG
KPAL
KN
KS
KZ
KAWK
KISL
KPAO
KCRM
KJUS
KSEC
KIPR
KGHG
KIFR
KTFN
KDRG
KV
KSUM
KWAC
KAWC
KDEMAF
KFIN
KGIC
KTIP
KOMC
KHLS
KSPR
KGCC
KPIN
KG
KBIO
KHIV
KSCA
KE
KFRD
KPKO
KNUC
KMDR
KPLS
KOLY
KUNR
KIRF
KIRC
KACT
KRAD
KCOM
KMCA
KHDP
KVPR
KDEV
KWMN
KTIA
KPRP
KCIP
KCFE
KOCI
KTDB
KMRS
KLIG
KBCT
KICC
KGIT
KSTC
KPAK
KNEI
KSEP
KPOA
KFLU
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KO
KTER
KHUM
KRFD
KBTR
KDDG
KWWMN
KFLO
KSAF
KBTS
KPRV
KMPI
KNPP
KNAR
KWMM
KERG
KTBT
KCRS
KRVC
KR
KPWR
KMIG
MOPS
MZ
MO
MNUC
MASS
MARR
MY
MEPP
MCAP
MA
MR
ML
MX
MIL
MTCRE
MPOS
MOPPS
MTCR
MAPP
MU
MG
MASC
MCC
MK
MTRE
MP
MDC
MAR
MEPI
MRCRE
MI
MT
MQADHAFI
MD
MAPS
MUCN
PREL
PTER
PGOV
PO
PHUM
PINS
PARM
PK
PINR
PINT
PBTS
PROP
PE
PL
PREF
POGOV
PINL
POL
PBIO
PSOE
PHSA
PKFK
PGOF
PARMS
PA
PM
PMIL
PTERE
PF
PALESTINIAN
PY
PGGV
PNR
POV
PAK
PAO
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PNAT
PROV
PEL
PGOVE
POLINT
POLITICS
PEPR
PSI
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PECON
SNAR
SA
SY
SOCI
STEINBERG
SP
SENV
SCUL
SF
SO
SR
SG
SW
SU
SL
SMIG
SN
SHUM
SZ
SYR
ST
SANC
SC
SAN
SIPRS
SK
SH
SI
UNSC
UP
UK
USEU
UG
UNMIK
UV
UZ
UY
UN
US
UNGA
UNO
USUN
UE
UNESCO
UAE
UNEP
USTR
UNHCR
UNDP
UNHRC
USAID
UNCHS
UNAUS
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09SANTIAGO933, Countdown to Chile's Congressional Elections
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09SANTIAGO933.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09SANTIAGO933 | 2009-12-10 19:07 | 2011-02-11 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Santiago |
VZCZCXRO2979
RR RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS
RUEHTM
DE RUEHSG #0933/01 3441952
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101952Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0402
INFO WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTIAGO 000933
SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC
AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PASS TO AMCONSUL RECIFE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/10
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: Countdown to Chile's Congressional Elections
REF: A. SANTIAGO 899 B. SANTIAGO 755 C. SANTIAGO 919
¶D. SANTIAGO 448 E. SANTIAGO 484
CLASSIFIED BY: Weitzenkorn, Laurie, A/DCM, State REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Individual races in this year's congressional elections are more competitive and uncertain than ever, although the elections may not produce much change in the overall makeup of the Chilean Congress. The governing Concertacion coalition will most likely regain its majority in the Senate, and match the opposition Alianza in the Chamber of Deputies. A number of small party and independent candidates, including communist party aspirants, will almost certainly win seats despite an electoral system that favors the two main blocks. The new Congress will largely continue the work of its predecessors, as pending legislation does not need to be reintroduced, while new legislative initiatives will be driven by the new President. End summary.
Congressional Elections
-------------------------------
¶2. (U) Some 8 million Chileans will vote in congressional elections on December 13, in addition to casting a ballot for president. Eighteen seats in the 38-member Senate and all 120 seats in the Chamber of Deputies are in play. (Note: The remaining 20 senators will not face elections until 2014, as senators serve eight-year terms while deputies serve for four years. One of these senators is Concertacion presidential candidate Eduardo Frei (Ref A). End note.) Senators and deputies can be re-elected indefinitely and are not required to reside in the districts they represent. In fact, it is quite common for incumbents to change districts when running for re-election or for members of the lower house to make a bid for the Senate in a different part of the country than where they previously served as parliamentarian.
Political Balance in Congress
-------------------------------------
¶3. (U) The governing Concertacion coalition is made up of the Socialist Party (PD), the Party for Democracy (PPD), the Radical Social Democrat Party (PRSD), and the Christian Democrats (DC). The opposition Alianza coalition is made up of the center-right National Renewal Party (RN) -- its presidential candidate Sebastian Pinera is the front-runner (Ref B) -- and the conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI). After the 2005 elections, the Concertacion coalition held a working majority in both houses of Congress, with 20 senators and 65 parliamentarians. Each house had one independent. Despite this majority -- sufficient to pass most laws but not for constitutional reform -- President Bachelet had difficulty pushing through her legislative agenda. Concertacion legislators began to stray from the disciplined voting blocks her three Concertacion predecessors had relied upon. The most unruly were labeled ""discolos"" by the press and were accused by their peers of criticizing their own coalition initiatives in order to gain media notoriety.
¶4. (U) Today that majority has been eroded due to a steady stream of defections over the past few years and disputes over who would be running for re-election on the coalition slate. By September, five Concertacion senators and eight parliamentarians - including maverick presidential candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami (Ref C) left Concertacion parties to become independents or to join the Independent Regionalist Party (PRI). The Concertacion now maintains a plurality in the Chamber with 57 seats, the Alianza holds 53 seats, the PRI 3 seats,and there are 7 independents. In the Senate the Concertacion holds 17 seats, the Alianza 16 seats, and there are 5 independents.
SANTIAGO 00000933 002 OF 004
The Binomial System
---------------------------
¶5. (U) In Chile's unusual ""binomial"" electoral system -- implemented during the Pinochet dictatorship -- two candidates will be elected per Senate or Chamber district. Coalitions of political parties present a slate of two candidates for each district while independents run alone. Voters will cast separate ballots for the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies and can vote for one candidate per race. (Note: Not all voters will receive a Senate ballot as only half of the Senate districts are up for re-election. End note.) The candidate with the most votes wins one of the two seats. However, a single slate of candidates must receive double the votes received by the second-place slate of candidates in order to gain both seats in the district, a process known as ""doubling."" Under this system, the Alianza and the Concertacion typically each win one seat per Senate district and one seat per Chamber of Deputies district. In order to gain a working majority, a coalition must double"" and win both seats in several districts, a feat which the Concertacion has pulled off in several districts in past elections and which the Alianza has achieved in one district.
A Plethora of Candidates: Independents and the Unruly ""Discolos""
--------------------------------------------- ----------------------
¶6. (U) This year voters will face a record number of candidates in each Chamber of Deputies district--up to nine candidates in some areas. Defections from the Concertacion have resulted in four coalition slates in most districts with a smattering of independents thrown in. In addition to the main Concertacion and Alianza lists in all 60 districts, the ""New Majority"" coalition of the Humanist and Ecological party is running a list in 48 districts and includes two former Concertacion ""discolo"" supporters of presidential candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami who are running for reelection. The PRI is running a list in 53 districts that includes three ex-Concertacion incumbents. The plethora of candidates makes outcomes much more uncertain than in past congressional elections, especially in smaller districts where it might come down to just a few votes. It also will make ""doubling"" very difficult, even in traditional Concertacion and Alianza strongholds.
¶7. (U) While it is likely that two former Concertacion parliamentarians will be re-elected as independents, others that have decided to run ""off-the-list"" for the Chamber or the Senate may not be so lucky, though they will manage to pull votes away from the Concertacion. Longtime Socialist Senator Carlos Ominami left the Concertacion to support his adopted son Enriquez-Ominami's independent presidential bid, but he faces an uphill battle to hold on to his senate seat. If enough ""discolos"" running as independents are successful, it could embolden others to take a similar route in the future. What is more likely is that all but a few ""discolos"" will lose to official Concertacion candidates, underlining the importance of party support for a successful congressional bid.
Communist Party Representation: A First in 20 Years
--------------------------------------------- ------------------
¶8. (SBU) In order to get around the binomial system that effectively excluded the Communist Party (Ref D) in previous elections, the Concertacion agreed to run Communist candidates in 12 Chamber districts. Only four of those candidacies are considered truly competitive, and the Communist Party is expected to pick up one to two seats in the Chamber. It will be the first time since the return to democracy that the Communist Party is represented in Congress. Although the Christian Democrats and the Communists have been enemies in the past, the instrumental pact was accepted by the Christian Democrats. Frei advisor and Christian Democrat elder statesman Belisario Velasco told Poloff and Pol Specialist that, It's better to have the Communists than the 'discolos,' because when you reach an agreement with the communists they stick to it, whereas the 'discolos' don't.""
More Uncertainty in Individual Races, but No Change Likely in
Relative Party Strength
--------------------------------------------- ----------------------
¶9. (SBU) The Concertacion expects to recapture its majority in the Senate, but analysts predict that it will only keep two of its six doubled"" districts in the Chamber of Deputies as ""discolos"" and other independents draw votes off the Concertacion in its strongholds. Both Belisario Velasco, advisor to President Frei, and Dario Paya, UDI deputy, predicted that the Alianza would do well in the Chamber with close to 50 percent of the seats. The real race for the Alianza is in the many districts where RN and UDI candidates on the same slate are fiercely competing for that one seat that is practically guaranteed to their coalition under the binomial system. Depending on the number of seats gained by Enriquez-Ominami supported ""discolos,"" the PRI, independents, and the Communists, the Alianza could find itself with a plurality in the Chamber. However, with so many close races involving serious intra-slate competition and independent wild-cards, some traditional Alianza strongholds are also in play. Most analysts predict the final composition of the Chamber of Deputies will have the Concertacion and the Alianza more or less equally matched while smaller party candidates and independents take between 7 - 10 seats.
¶10. (SBU) The new Congress will largely continue the work of its predecessors, as pending legislation does not need to be reintroduced. New legislative initiatives will be largely driven by the executive, which sets the priorities of the legislative agenda and can force a congressional vote on a particular piece of draft legislation over another. Despite some significant shifting around of emblematic faces and personalities, the new Congress will likely continue to operate as it currently does, with neither main coalition winning a majority and a group of independents and smaller party representatives playing a swing role.
Longtime Party Leaders Face Tough Races
--------------------------------------------- ----------
¶11. (SBU) Analysts argue that this year's parliamentary election is the first to be completely ""decoupled"" from the presidential race, where many congressional candidates are running on their own resumes rather than attempting to ride their presidential candidates' coattails. There are more variables and uncertainty present than in previous years, when the two big coalitions offered candidacies to emblematic political leaders that were virtually guaranteed to win, thanks to the binomial system. Not anymore. Several longtime leaders are taking big risks, including now independent Senator Carlos Ominami and Deputy Isabel Allende. A Socialist and the daughter of former President Salvador Allende, Isabel Allende is running a very tight race against her slate-mate for a Senate seat in northern Chile. UDI Deputy Dario Paya admitted that his party is concerned that as many as four important UDI leaders may lose their races - including the current and highly respected President of the Chamber, Rodrigo Alvarez -- which would be ""devastating"" for the party. He was quick to add that all four would made excellent additions to a Pinera administration, though others in the Pinera campaign have told us that Pinera is opposed to including ""congressional losers"" in his administration.
Comment:
--------------
¶12. (C) The usual predictability of the binomial system that favors two main coalitions is being challenged seriously for the first time in this year's congressional election. While the end result may not produce any big surprises in terms of balance, it has already upended the traditional notion that the most important part of running for Congress was securing a nomination (Ref E). Greater competition and uncertainty have pushed candidates to campaign more competitively and have brought in some fresh faces. While these fresh faces are largely from the usual circle of political elites, more competition in legislative elections should strengthen Chile's democracy, which has gotten a bit stale since there has been little change in party structures or personalities since the end of military rule in 1990. Any future President will have to negotiate his legislative priorities with the opposition and in the context of a more fractured Congress. The smaller party representatives and independents will be the ones to watch. End comment.
SIMONS