![Keep Us Strong](../../../static/gfx/ja-cg.jpg)
![WikiLeaks logo](../../../static/gfx/WL_Hour_Glass_small.png)
Currently released so far... 3954 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
AF
AM
AE
AG
AR
ASEC
AS
AU
AORC
AJ
AMGT
AGMT
AFIN
APER
ABUD
ATRN
AEMR
ACOA
AEC
AO
AX
AMED
ADCO
AODE
AFFAIRS
AC
AL
ASIG
ABLD
AA
AFU
ASUP
AROC
ATFN
CH
CE
CA
CASC
CU
CLINTON
CO
CI
CVIS
CDG
CIA
CACM
CDB
CS
CBW
CD
CV
CMGT
CJAN
CG
CF
CN
CAN
COUNTER
CIS
CM
CONDOLEEZZA
COE
CR
CY
CTM
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CPAS
CWC
CT
CKGR
CB
CACS
COM
CJUS
CARSON
COUNTERTERRORISM
EUN
EG
EAID
ENRG
ETTC
EFIN
ECON
ETRD
EPET
EINV
EMIN
ECIP
ECPS
EINDETRD
EAGR
EU
EN
EZ
ELAB
ER
ET
ES
EUC
EI
EAIR
EIND
EWWT
ELTN
EREL
ECIN
EFIS
EINT
EC
ENVR
ECA
EXTERNAL
EINVETC
ENIV
EINN
ENGR
EUR
ESA
ENERG
EK
ELECTIONS
ECUN
EINVEFIN
IR
IS
IZ
INRB
IAEA
IN
IT
ID
IO
IV
ICTY
IQ
ICAO
INTERPOL
IPR
IRAJ
INRA
INRO
IC
IIP
ITPHUM
IWC
ISRAELI
IRAQI
ICRC
IMO
IF
ILC
IEFIN
INTELSAT
IL
IA
IBRD
IMF
ITALY
ITALIAN
KCOR
KDEM
KNNP
KU
KWBG
KPAL
KN
KS
KZ
KAWK
KISL
KPAO
KCRM
KJUS
KSEC
KIPR
KGHG
KIFR
KTFN
KDRG
KV
KSUM
KWAC
KAWC
KDEMAF
KFIN
KGIC
KTIP
KOMC
KHLS
KSPR
KGCC
KPIN
KG
KBIO
KHIV
KSCA
KE
KFRD
KPKO
KNUC
KMDR
KPLS
KOLY
KUNR
KIRF
KIRC
KACT
KRAD
KCOM
KMCA
KHDP
KVPR
KDEV
KWMN
KTIA
KPRP
KCIP
KCFE
KOCI
KTDB
KMRS
KLIG
KBCT
KICC
KGIT
KSTC
KPAK
KNEI
KSEP
KPOA
KFLU
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KO
KTER
KHUM
KRFD
KBTR
KDDG
KWWMN
KFLO
KSAF
KBTS
KPRV
KMPI
KNPP
KNAR
KWMM
KERG
KTBT
KCRS
KRVC
KR
KPWR
KMIG
MOPS
MZ
MO
MNUC
MASS
MARR
MY
MEPP
MCAP
MA
MR
ML
MX
MIL
MTCRE
MPOS
MOPPS
MTCR
MAPP
MU
MG
MASC
MCC
MK
MTRE
MP
MDC
MAR
MEPI
MRCRE
MI
MT
MQADHAFI
MD
MAPS
MUCN
PREL
PTER
PGOV
PO
PHUM
PINS
PARM
PK
PINR
PINT
PBTS
PROP
PE
PL
PREF
POGOV
PINL
POL
PBIO
PSOE
PHSA
PKFK
PGOF
PARMS
PA
PM
PMIL
PTERE
PF
PALESTINIAN
PY
PGGV
PNR
POV
PAK
PAO
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PNAT
PROV
PEL
PGOVE
POLINT
POLITICS
PEPR
PSI
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PECON
SNAR
SA
SY
SOCI
STEINBERG
SP
SENV
SCUL
SF
SO
SR
SG
SW
SU
SL
SMIG
SN
SHUM
SZ
SYR
ST
SANC
SC
SAN
SIPRS
SK
SH
SI
UNSC
UP
UK
USEU
UG
UNMIK
UV
UZ
UY
UN
US
UNGA
UNO
USUN
UE
UNESCO
UAE
UNEP
USTR
UNHCR
UNDP
UNHRC
USAID
UNCHS
UNAUS
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 08LONDON2451, UK PM GORDON BROWN REASSERTS HIS LEADERSHIP AT LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE, BUT DAVID CAMERON LOOMS REF: A. LONDON 2163 B. LONDON 2010 C. LONDON 623 D. LONDON 1991
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08LONDON2451.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
08LONDON2451 | 2008-09-25 16:04 | 2011-02-04 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy London |
VZCZCXRO1745
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #2451/01 2691643
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 251643Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9906
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 002451
NOFORN
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EUR/WE, NSC FOR BRADLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL UK
SUBJECT: UK PM GORDON BROWN REASSERTS HIS LEADERSHIP AT LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE, BUT DAVID CAMERON LOOMS REF: A. LONDON 2163 B. LONDON 2010 C. LONDON 623 D. LONDON 1991
Classified By: DCM Richard LeBaron, reasons 1.4 b, d
¶1. (C/NF) Summary and comment. Gordon Brown succeeded in reestablishing his authority at the Labour Party's Fall Conference in Manchester September 20-24, cutting the Conservative Party's lead in half in post-conference polling and buying himself some time against a serious leadership challenge. Brown's comeback was somewhat overshadowed, however, by the leak of the news that Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly would step down at the next cabinet reshuffle. Brown has refused to comment publicly on a possible reshuffle, but according to media reports he plans to announce a new cabinet lineup on October 2 or 3, with Foreign Secretary David Miliband and Chancellor Alistair Darling slated to remain in their current positions.
¶2. (C/NF) Summary continued. In his keynote speech, which the media dubbed "the speech of his political life" beforehand, Brown hammered the Conservatives over their lack of economic experience in times of global financial turmoil, and delegates in Manchester told Embassy London officers they thought the PM successfully managed to put the Tories on the defensive going into their September 28-October 2 conference in Birmingham. Senior party officials sought to turn the U.S. economic crisis to Labour's advantage by hinting that the U.S. crisis vindicates eleven years of what they described as "regulatory" economic policies under Labour. Even a cursory examination of Labour's eleven year economic record, however, shows the government has at best maintained a light regulatory touch - a point Tory leader David Cameron will certainly highlight next week. Brown has done enough to ensure his survival for now, but Cameron's powers of oratory may well reverse Brown's bounce in the polls. Meanwhile, the finger-pointing inside Labour over who leaked the Kelly resignation indicates Brown still has work to do to stop hemorrhaging support internally. And although the party endeavored to put on a united face at the conference, Embassy London officers witnessed a few chinks in that armor, as grassroots activists pleaded with senior MPs on the margins to stop avoidable missteps in Westminster which they are having trouble defending at the local level. End summary and comment.
In the Face of Sinking Polls and a Low Level Revolt... --------------------------------------------- ---------
¶3. (SBU) Prime Minister Brown's year-long run of grim news (reftels) continued in the run-up to the conference. A September 19 poll of 788 Labour members and supporters conducted for the Independent found that 54 percent preferred someone other than Brown to lead the party, and 57 percent believed there should be a leadership vote at the upcoming party conference. On a scale of 1 to 10, Brown's personal rating was just 4.30, third to last of serving Cabinet members. On the national level, a September 17 Ipso Mori poll found support for the Tories at 52 percent, the first time they had polled above the 50 percent mark in 20 years, since the era of Margaret Thatcher, with Labour at just 24 percent, and the Liberal Democrats at 12 percent.
¶4. (SBU) In addition to the by-now predictably low poll numbers, Brown was forced to quash a minor revolt the week of September 15, after a dozen MPs asked the Labour Party National Executive Committee (NEC) to issue ballots for a leadership election at the conference. The NEC refused the request, but Brown had to fire three of the MPs involved from their official positions - Siobhain McDonagh as government whip, Joan Ryan as Vice Chair of the Labour Party and the PM's Special Envoy to Cyprus, and Barry Gardiner as Special Envoy for Forestry. Scotland Office Minister David Cairns also resigned, saying he could no longer support Brown as leader. The revolt was not a serious attempt to overthrow the PM: at least 70 MPs would need to call for a leadership challenge before a vote could be held (Ref A), and while the exact number of rebels is unknown, it appears to have fallen far short of that number. Brown's cabinet rallied around him, with many taking to the airwaves in his support. Nonetheless, all of the rebels were Labour stalwarts - McDonagh, in particular, had not voted against the party once during her eleven years in Parliament - who were worried about the party's continued fall under Brown. As one rebel put it to the media, "This is not a coup, it is a cry from the heart." These events increased the pressure on Brown to LONDON 00002451 002 OF 003 give a strong performance at the conference, particularly during his key note speech, to assure the party rank-and-file that he should retain the leadership.
...Brown Comes Back... ----------------------
¶5. (SBU) Brown's performance appears to have done the job. In the run-up to Brown's speech, key members of his cabinet, including Alistair Darling and David Miliband, took pains to emphasize their support for the PM and highlight his achievements. The speech itself, when it came, was a hot ticket item, with delegates lining up at the doors to the auditorium well before the event. Speaking for over an hour, Brown repeatedly slammed the Tories for their lack of economic experience, and warned that trusting them with the economy in difficult times was a mistake. "What has become clear is that Britain cannot trust the Conservatives to run the economy," he said. "I'm all for apprenticeships, but let me tell you, this is no time for a novice." The use of the word "novice," ostensibly aimed at David Cameron, was also broadly interpreted as a side swipe at Miliband, a would-be challenger to Brown (Ref B). While Brown outlined a few economic initiatives, including free internet broad band for schools, most of the initiatives he touched on had been previewed before. Our contacts in the banking sector were not excited by anything the PM announced, noting that Brown is quite limited in what he can do by the current state of public finance.
¶6. (SBU) Nonetheless, the speech was well received, both in the conference hall itself and with the media, and Brown received a corresponding bounce in the polls. A YouGov survey for The Sun published September 25, the day after the conference ended, showed Labour at 31 percent, up 7 points from the last YouGov poll, and the Tories down by 3 points to 41 percent, with the Lib Dems down 4 to 16 percent. On the question of who would make a better prime minister, Brown rose 8 points to 24 percent, while Cameron fell 2 points to 32 percent (37 percent were undecided). Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they wanted Brown to remain as PM - up 10 points - while the number of respondents who thought he should be replaced as PM fell five points to 49 percent.
...But Infighting Mars His Victory ----------------------------------
¶7. (C/NF) Brown's comeback was tarnished by the leak September 24 of the news that Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly planned to step down at the next Cabinet reshuffle to spend more time with her family. Brown himself immediately took to the airwaves to say that he had known about Kelly's departure since May, in an effort to stop speculation that the announcement was timed to embarrass him at the conference. Some pundits questioned Kelly's cliched excuse, noting her unhappiness, as a staunch Catholic and member of Opus Dei, with the passage of the Embryo and Fertilization Bill. Others pointed out, however, that Kelly has four children under the age of twelve, all born since she was first elected to Parliament in 1997. More hotly debated than why Kelly chose to resign, however, was the question of who leaked the resignation in the first place, coming as it did just after Brown's well-received speech. Labour ministers who refused to be named filled the newspapers with quotes indicating that Brownites believed Blairites leaked the news to embarrass the PM, Blairites blamed the PM's supporters for trying to flush out Kelly as a party rebel, and still others within Labour blamed the Tories for leaking the news in the first place. Kelly herself expressed surprise that the news leaked when it did: "I was shocked when I first heard the news," she said. (Embassy comment: Perhaps the most plausible explanation for the leak, posited by the Guardian, was that a junior official had too much to drink and blabbed the news to a journalist at the conference hotel bar. End comment.)
¶8. (SBU) Whoever ultimately leaked the resignation, the resulting infighting demonstrated that Brown still needs to shore up his support within the party. And although the party endeavored to present a united front at the conference, Embassy London officers at the conference witnessed some chinks in the armor. In an electrifying side meeting with Children's Secretary Ed Balls and Jon Cruddas, party activists pleaded with Balls - one of Gordon Brown's closest advisors - to take into account how decisions made by the leadership affect the grass roots. "Stop the ghastly cock-ups and changing your mind the day after you make a decision," demanded one elderly delegate. "Central government is making decisions that impact us locally, but LONDON 00002451 003 OF 003 you make it difficult for us to fight for them," said one local council member. Balls conceded mistakes had been made: "We weren't as good as we should have been," he said. Chuka Umunna, the Labour candidate for Streatham, was blunt with Balls. "Gordon Brown needs to connect with the average person," he said. "And, with all due respect, that's not a problem just Brown has. The whole cabinet is having trouble connecting to the average person."
Taking Advantage of the U.S. Economic Crisis --------------------------------------------
¶9. (SBU) In addition to stressing the Tories' lack of economic experience, Brown and Chancellor Alistair Darling sought to highlight the regulatory measures HMG has taken in the past year to stave off economic crises, including nationalizing Northern Rock (Ref C), authorizing the Bank of England to inject GBP 100 billion into the economy, assisting the merger of the Halifax Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB, and being the first major economy to ban the speculative practice of short selling. Other senior officials went further, positing that the USG's move to tighten regulations on the market vindicates eleven years of Labour's "regulatory economic policies." Jon Cruddas MP, favorite of the trade unions and a contender to succeed Brown (Ref D), suggested that the U.S. economic crisis demonstrates that capitalism is failing and is therefore a vindication of social democratic philosophy as a whole, opining that this will help Labour at the next election.
Foreign Policy --------------
¶10. (SBU) While Brown did not mention foreign policy issues in his speech, beyond praising the bravery of British troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, both Miliband and Defence Secretary Des Browne addressed the conference on their particular areas and were active in side meetings. Miliband repeatedly highlighted the importance of multilateralism in UK foreign policy, saying that domestic support must underpin foreign policy decisions and that that the public was more likely to support policies with broad backing from the international community. He also stressed the importance of a Palestinian state, saying he feared the window for a settlement was closing. "We have years, but not decades," he said. On Russia, Miliband was cautious, saying that the Russians want to be loved, the West has things they want, and we should take full advantage of that. The underlying tone of his message was that, although there can be no relations as usual, we should be prepared to talk with the Russians on areas of shared interest, like Iran. On Iraq, Des Browne frequently used the standard UK line that British relations with Iraq are "poised to change in 2009" depending on conditions on the ground. On the military, Browne devoted most of his address to outlining several new initiatives to help returning soldiers and their families.
Comment: Here Comes David Cameron ----------------------------------
¶11. (C/NF) Brown had a good conference - but it may not have been enough. At this time last year, Brown was riding high in the polls. David Cameron dismantled that lead and put Brown on the defensive, from which he has yet to recover - primarily through his brilliant performance at the 2008 Tory Fall Conference. Odds are good he will do it again. Cameron is not only a superior orator to Brown, but also has the advantage of getting in the last word, due to the traditional sequence of party conference timing. Labour's attempt to redefine itself as the party of regulation may also boomerang, as Cameron could very well argue that Labour's record is not as "regulatory" as some Labourites have painted it. Finally, Brown has to do something to stop the internal party squabbling from derailing him, as it has time and again over the last year. End summary and comment. Visit London's Classified Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX
TUTTLE